Market Not Pricing In Hawkish Surprise From Fed
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1340
Fundamentals: Gold is trading higher this morning on a weaker Dollar ahead of today’s Fed policy decision at 1:00 pm CT. Also, this week is Nonfarm Payroll Friday and we expect volatility to pick up through here. Yesterday, solid Case Shiller data along with better than expected Consumer Confidence encouraged much needed selling in Gold. Still, as the Dollar has weakened once again into this morning, we believe the market is not pricing in the potential for a hawkish surprise in verbiage from the Fed and because of this, the near-term risk is to the downside in Gold.
Technicals: Our Bias remains Neutral in the near-term. However, we are unequivocally long-term bullish Gold. At this level there is little value ahead of the Fed, however, there are ways to reduce risk while maintaining a long position and we encourage you to reach out to our trade desk at 312-278-0500 in order to discuss this. We cannot become neat-term bullish Gold until first key support at 1329.1-1331.9 is achieved at minimum.
Resistance: 1349.7-1351.4**, 1365-1370***, 1377.8**, 1392.6***, 1432.9**
Support: 1329.1-1331.9**, 1321.7***, 1307.6-1312***