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THE DECAY OF PAPER CURRENCY
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The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: For anyone living
in the 20th century, the rising cost of living is nothing
new. Since the creation of the Federal Reserve, the dollar
has lost about 95% of its purchasing power. Chris Mayer explores
our other options for making sound investments...
Inflation, as it is commonly known, has not
always been the normal state of affairs. As James Grant, editor
of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, has pointed out, "From
George Washington to the A-bomb, prices alternately rose and
fell... As Alan Greenspan himself has pointed out, the American
price level registered little net change between 1800 and
1929."
The basic nature of our money assures it will lose value
over time. It can be created nearly at will and it is left
in the hands of government officials, who routinely spend
more than they have. In such a state, a nation's paper money
has a shelf life like a fresh egg or a jar of mayonnaise.
It doesn't last forever. Unlike these foodstuffs, paper money
has no printed expiration date.
According to economist Felix Somary, who experienced firsthand
the devastating monetary inflations that destroyed the German
mark in the 1920s, it took Rome four centuries to destroy
its currency. Germany and Austria reached that point in just
nine years, ending in the famous hyperinflations of the 1920s,
and before that, Russia managed it in only five years. Everyone's
experience is different, but our collective experiments in
paper money have not created a currency that increases in
value over time.
The life and value of a monetary unit has less to do with
the wealth of a country than with the simple facts of supply
and demand. As the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises
noted, "Even the richest country can have a bad currency
and the poorest country a good one."
For some interesting insights into the flight of the dollar,
I want to share some thoughts I recently read from Justin
Mamis, author of several investment books and a longtime market
adviser. Mamis was born during one of the great turning moments
in stock market history - 1929.
Mamis talks about the experience of the dollar's immediate
predecessor as cock of the walk, the old British pound. The
pound, the currency of choice for a long stretch of time before
the American dollar, was the product of the British Empire.
Imperial ambition and sound money, though, never mix, and
the pound probably peaked somewhere before World War I. After
World War II, Mamis notes, "The Empire peeled off like
an onion into a grab bag of different independent countries...
the Bretton Woods Agreement of July 1944 signaled the end
of the British pound as the world's reserve currency."
The British pound continued to weaken against the dollar
over the ensuing years. Mamis notes: "Weakness, in a
long-term sense, begets weakness, like the flaws in an incestuous
genetic pool."
The dollar has been the world's reserve currency, or currency
of choice, since at least Bretton Woods. From this short collection
of historical vignettes, we can make one safe assumption.
As Mamis puts it, the status of being a "reserve currency
is not a permanent appointment."
To pinpoint when the dollar's status as the world's currency
of choice will end is an impossible task. These things tend
to unfold over many years, and there does not appear to be
any immediate contender ready to ascend to the throne. But
that should not deter the investor from making the basic assumption
that the dollar of a decade hence will buy less than a dollar
of today.
I'll include one last quote from Mamis, who advises us not
to expect long-term trends to always be immediately apparent
or obvious. "We must warn not to turn the next century's
global changes into something that has to be evident in its
entirety all at once - or else denied. Nor will our concerns
be proven instantly 'wrong' because the dollar finally has
its oversold rebound." Well said.
This situation - the whittling away of the dollar - creates
the need for sound investing. Basically, investors look to
survive the ravages of inflation (and taxes - of which inflation
is a most insidious type). Like the biting winds of nature
that sculpt rock and carve stone, inflation and taxes will
grind the greatest piles of fortune to dust over time. Preserving
it, making it grow - essentially investing well - is the investor's
difficult art.
So should you put your money in euros, perhaps, or some other
foreign currency? The euro may strengthen against the dollar,
but I think the dollar and the euro share the same fate, like
the passenger pigeon and the Carolina parakeet. The road to
extinction may be of indeterminable length, but the final
destination of that road is not in doubt. The same can be
said of all our paper currencies, be they yen or pounds, pesos
or ringgit. All of them are on the same slide.
But there are other ways to beat the decaying paper currencies
that make up so much of our financial wealth. The idea of
tangible asset investing, investing in stuff that has survived
and prospered in a variety of conditions, should meet the
challenge in the years ahead.
Often, I've looked at some great fortunes and drawn insights
and lessons from those experiences. Recently, I came across
an old book, originally published in 1907 and written by Gustavus
Myers, called History of the Great American Fortunes.
It is a mammoth study of American wealth over the previous
200 years and deals with fortunes in shipping, land, fisheries,
railroads, trusts, banks and other industries. I've only read
a couple of the opening chapters, which happen to cover the
shipping and land fortunes. But some of Myers' observations
got me thinking about the durability of some forms of investment
over others. Shipping and land offer interesting contrasts.
Myers writes about the great fortunes of the shippers. "Enormous
as were the profits of the shipping business, they were immediate
only. In the contest for wealth, it was inevitable that the
shipper should fall behind. Their business was one of peculiar
uncertainties. The hazards of the sea, the fluctuations and
vicissitudes of trade, the severe competition of the times
exposed their traffic to many mutations." In other words,
shippers' fortunes came and went, like the late-1990s boom
in tech stocks, the 1960s conglomerate boom or any number
of investment crazes of years gone by.
Many shippers were aware of the vicissitudes of their business
and often invested some piece of their fortunes in land, banks,
factories, turnpikes, insurance companies and railroads. Those
that didn't didn't last.
Contrast this with Myers' observations on those fortunes
built on land, primarily in commercial cities of importance:
Fortunes built on land in the cities were indued with a mathematical
certainty and perpetuity. A lot of the tendencies and currents
of the times favored the building up of an aristocracy based
on the ownership of city property. With the progressing growth
of commerce and population, with immigration continuing...
every year witnessing a keener pressure for occupation of
land, the value of this latter was certain to increase.
An investment in land was an investment in something that
was real and often increased in value despite what its owners
did with it. It could be titled and its ownership made certain
- unable to be copied by a competitor.
One more quote from Myers, who draws this interesting conclusion:
A more formidable system for the foundation and amplification
of lasting fortunes has not existed...And that it is pre-eminently
so is seen in the fact that the large shipping fortunes of
a century ago are now generally completely forgotten, as the
methods then used are obsolete. But the land has remained
land; and the fortunes then incubated have grown into mighty
powers of great national, and some of considerable international,
importance.
Now, I'm not concluding that land is a new surefire investment
bound to make us all rich in time. But the best characteristics
of land provide insight into what makes a resilient investment,
able to hold its value in a variety of market conditions.
Land has some characteristics, such as its durability, relatively
fixed supply and timeless qualities that have often made wonderful
investments and formed the keystone to later fortunes.
To survive and prosper in the years ahead while the dollar
crumbles, look for real assets that share these qualities.
Regards,
Chris Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning
Editor's Note : Christopher W. Mayer is a veteran
of the banking industry, specifically in the area of corporate
lending. A financial writer since 1998, Christopher's essays
have appeared in a wide variety of publications, from the
Mises.org Daily Article series to here in The Daily Reckoning.
He is also the editor of Fleet Street Letter.
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