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October 20, 2005 – I first invested in gold
stocks in1972. During the ensuing three plus decades I limited
my purchases to those companies that ranged from somewhat
to wildly speculative. Whenever I was actively involved
in this market, gold was typically either in a Bull Market
or in a substantial upward correction within a Bear Market.
In either case, I believed that all gold mining companies
would appreciate in price greater than gold itself, with
the higher gold prices that I foresaw.
My reason for targeting these typically small
companies was simple. It was due to my now time tested and
proven belief that the better enterprises within this group
would most profit from an important rise in gold.
Initially, it seemed obvious that the major
and secondary producing companies would directly benefit
from a higher price for the noble metal. This would result
because they would sell their gold ore at increasingly higher
prices which would bestow them with greater profits. However,
I believed that an exploration company that either acquired
or was on the path towards defining a important ore body
would attract far greater attention. It would arouse the
imagination of investors! This in turn would bring the necessary
buying that could drive its share price higher, and greater
reward its shareholders than would the well-known, established
companies. Thus my search began for those few companies
that would help me not only prove my theory, but would also
reward me for my foresight.
During the 1970's there were few junior gold
exploration companies from which to choose. Importantly,
most of the best exploration geologists were firmly entrenched
in the employ of a major or a secondary producing company.
This left a paltry few to even consider working with a junior
company that was financed on a shoestring. Further, there
was limited information available about these small stocks,
and the overall ability of their management teams left much
to be desired. These conditions progressively and dramatically
improved from the late1980's through the 1990's, and set
the stage for the great mineral exploration investor opportunity
that is available today.
When gold’s first great Bull Market ended
in1980, worldwide gold exploration began to decline. It
became so drastically curtailed that by the mid-late1980's,
the major mining companies began to reduce their geological
staffs. This resulted for the first time in the availability
of numerous geologists to the junior market. Many were individuals
who were instrumental in earlier major gold or other mineral
discoveries. These professionals were in search of employment
and some found themselves in the director’s seats of some
small, little-known companies.
After the late 1980's, the number of resource
companies and the availability of exceptional geologists
continued to escalate. Between 1993 and 1996, gold experienced
a major price rise. However, subsequent to gold posting
its $420 peak in1996, the damaging and seemingly interminable
decline that ensued witnessed even greater lay-offs among
the gold producers.
When the smoke cleared, and after gold probed
its $255 double bottom low in 2001, a large number of seasoned,
successful exploration geologists had shifted positions.
They were fired from the major companies for which they
may have been employed for decades, and were manning the
helms of various junior companies.
The two-decade Bear Market in gold was accompanied
by similar declining markets in the various base and other
precious metals. This factor forced numerous extraordinary
geologists from the world’s major mining companies to seek
new forms of employment. The end result was the first availability
of many extremely competent explorers, with expertise across
the mineral spectrum, to the junior mining industry.
After 1996, an additional contingent of the
world’s best mining people found their way into junior companies.
This time, however, it was due to their belief that they
could transfer their abilities, for which they made billions
of dollars for their former employers, to their new companies.
They envisioned their ability to directly and greatly benefit
from any success in their new roles. Instead of making a
maximum of a few hundred thousand dollars a year as employees
of a Barrick, a Newmont, or a Placer Dome, they could make
fortunes for themselves and their shareholders, if they
again did what they did best and made a new mine.
I LEARNED THE HARD WAY, FROM EXPERIENCE
In my determination to ferret out the junior
gold companies that offered the greatest profit potential
I learned many lessons. It was a costly learning process!
I found how enormously difficult it was to find competent
and straightforward management teams. It was easy enough
to learn of companies that had great “stories”. However,
I found that it was extraordinarily difficult to find those
that had a great likelihood of actually delivering the goods.
Through my encounters I met more than a few
individuals and groups that “talked the talk”, only to later
find that they had other agendas. They were more interested
in talking up their companies in order to sell their stock
to investors, rather than being devoted to finding a mine.
After learning much from these and other experiences, and
having left much of my investment capital behind, I began
to better understand this potentially highly profitable
but pitfall-ridden industry. I learned what to look for
in a junior mining company that would increase my chances
for success, while allowing me to avoid many of the dangers.
The first and most important lesson that
I learned was that the people running these companies are
the most important factors for success. While there are
thousands of geologists involved in the industry only a
small handful, possibly a few percent, will ever make a
mine. And, it is not unusual for one individual to be instrumental
in numerous discoveries that lead to mines. I believe that
this is because certain exploration geologists have, for
lack of a better term, a sixth sense. They seem to intuitively
understand the processes that nature goes through in creating
and depositing an ore body. Further, they have the ability
to recognize the confluence of geological and other conditions
that indicate the existence of such a potential, that will
be overlooked by lesser geologists.
Next on my list is the ability to raise capital
to fund their advancement. If a company cannot raise sufficient
working capital it has little chance for success! They may
have an outstanding project. Yet, it will languish if they
cannot finance the necessary work to move it forward in
its development.
Promotion is a dirty word to many people!
However, in this industry it is truly a necessary evil.
This is not to suggest that either unethical or illegal
dissemination of information should be condoned. I am referring
to professionally designed “market awareness” programs.
It is unfortunate, but in order for a company’s share price
to attain a sufficiently high price commensurate with the
value of its projects, the public must know its attributes.
We as investors cannot intuitively sense whether a company
is overvalued or is working on a great project. We must
first be made aware of its existence, and then learn the
details of its assets to recognize its potential.
In this industry it doesn’t follow that a
company’s share price must reflect its underlying value!
There are far too many stocks for even the most dedicated
and driven analyst or investor to follow. This creates a
condition where many companies are overlooked and undervalued.
For this reason, I believe that it is mandatory for a company
to contact investors and get the word out. In this fashion
buying will enter its market and hopefully move its price
to a fair value.
If a market awareness program is properly
performed it may allow the company to execute an equity
financing at a higher price than would otherwise be the
case. The result will be less stock dilution, where fewer
shares will have to be issued. This in turn will render
the existing ones more valuable.
The final major factor that separates the
finest potential junior exploration companies from their
competition are their projects. I am discussing this last
because these will typically be acquired by the industry’s
best management teams. When a major gold producer desires
to joint-venture one of their projects with a junior it
will consider those that possess the finest people. Similarly,
the best projects typically find their way into the hands
of the groups that have the greatest likelihood for advancing
them towards production.
I have attempted to detail the factors that
a junior mining company must possess in order to have the
greatest possibility for achieving success. I must stress
that the people leading these companies are far and away
their most important attributes!
Not only are the finest management teams
the most likely to make a mine, but they will also attract
the best projects as well as the financing necessary to
move them towards their goal. In this industry as in most,
the people are indeed everything!
The great difficulty, and near impossible
task for the novice, is separating the best from the rest.
I use the factors described above and my experience whenever
I search for junior companies to feature in Financial Insights.
Hopefully, I have helped the reader to better approach this
market and to be fortunate enough to gain similar success
as I have.
*******
I publish Financial
Insights. It is a monthly newsletter in which I discuss
gold, the financial markets, as well as various junior resource
stocks that I believe offer great price appreciation potential.
Please visit my website www.financialinsights.org
where you will be able to view previous issues of Financial
Insights, as well as the companies that I am presently following.
You will also be able to learn about me and about a special
subscription offer.
CAVEAT
I expect to have positions
in many of the stocks that I discuss in these letters, and
I will always disclose them to you. In essence, I will be
putting my money where my mouth is! However, if this troubles
you please avoid those that I own! I will attempt wherever
possible, to offer stocks that I believe will allow my subscribers
to participate without unduly affecting the stock price.
It is my desire for my subscribers to purchase their stock
as cheaply as possible. I would also suggest to beginning
purchasers of these stocks, the following: always place
limit orders when making purchases. If you don't, you run
the risk of paying too much because you may inadvertently
and unnecessarily raise the price. It may take a little
patience, but in the long run you will save yourself a significant
sum of money. In order to have a chance for success in this
market, you must spread your risk among several companies.
To that end, you should divide your available risk money
into equal increments. These are all speculations! Never
invest any money in these stocks that you could not afford
to lose all of
Please call the companies regularly.
They are controlling your investments.
FINANCIAL INSIGHTS is written and published by Dr. Richard
Appel and is made available for informational purposes only.
Dr. Appel pledges to disclose if he directly or indirectly
has a position in any of the securities mentioned. He will
make every effort to obtain information from sources believed
to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot
be guaranteed. Dr. Appel encourages your letters and emails,
but cannot respond personally. Be assured that all letters
will be read and considered for response in future letters.
It is in your best interest to contact any company in which
you consider investing, regarding their financial statements
and corporate information. Further, you should thoroughly
research and consult with a professional investment advisor
before making any equity investments. Use of any information
contained herein is at the risk of the reader without responsibility
on our part. Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Dr. Appel does not purport to offer personalized
investment advice and is not a registered investment advisor.
The information herein may contain forward-looking information
within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act
of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of
1934. In accordance with the safe harbor provisions of the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, the statements
contained herein that look forward in time, which include
everything other than historical information, involve risks
and uncertainties that may affect the company's actual results
of operations. © 2005 by Dr. Richard S. Appel. All
rights are reserved. Parts of the above may be reproduced
in context, for inclusion in other publications if the publisher's
name and address are also included for credit.
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