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The Rosen Market Timing Letter
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CRAZY
U. S. DOLLAR INDEX MONTHLY
GOLD MONTHLY
U. S. DOLLAR INDEX MONTHLY
GOLD MONTHLY
SUMMARY
This may be very difficult to digest for those who have been inundated with bearish views on the U. S, Dollar and glorious claims of gold prices in the sky. They may come true in due time but the time may not be now! We must approach this business in absolute emotional neutral or we will be subject to serious losses.
TIMING, TIMING, TIMING is everything in the markets. This is true in the short term, medium term, and long term. It is the medium term and the long term that concern me the most. Everything I see in the charts of gold, the U. S. Dollar Index, and the S & P 500 are telling me a story far different from the one we have been inundated with for a number of months and years.
The more I study my charts the more convinced I am that an attitude and approach of caution towards your investments in the gold and silver complex have become an absolute necessity. There may be one more severe decline in the precious metals complex before a solid bottom is achieved. This decline may last many months. The charts posted above show an Elliott wave count for gold and the dollar that I believe is probably more accurate than most other popular wave counts that I have seen. One more declining leg for gold and one more rising leg for the dollar appear to be a high probability, a very high probability as I read the markets.
If this is an accurate assessment for gold, once it bottoms it may require a period of accumulation that may take some time. If you are highly leveraged and have borrowed money in order to increase your participation in a precious metals bull market you may be better off eliminating your borrowing. I personally will be eliminating some of my precious metal share holdings.
My personal approach, learned the hard way, is to wait for concrete evidence that the move has resumed before I increase my position. This means paying higher prices when I reenter the market. I consider this an insurance premium against serious loss. Minimizing my position to a point that whatever happens won’t bother me has proven to be not only good for my nerves but puts me in a position of neutrality. That position allows my market vision to be unhampered by concern. I do my best work in that position.
Will there be a parabolic rise in the price of gold? I believe there will be at some point in time. At this point in time the evidence that there is one more leg down for gold is too great for me to be unconcerned. I am concerned that now is not the time.
I can only provide my thoughts; I can not tell you what to do. I have lightened up on my gold shares and feel more comfortable for having done so.
Please remember this; I am not concerned with paying higher prices if a parabolic move has proven to have begun and my concerns have proven to be wrong.
My being wrong on timing is always a probability. However, one more [C] leg down in gold bullion before the bull move resumes is appearing more and more probable based on what I see. A huge, and I mean HUGE, short position in gold by the commercials usually pays off big for them in due time. To me that time appears to be getting closer.
For Subscriptions; THE ROSEN MARKET TIMING LETTER www.wilder-concepts.com/rosenletter.aspx
Stay well,
M I G H T Y I N S P I R I T
Ron Rosen & Alistair Gilbert
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Disclaimer: The contents of this letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen is not a registered investment advisor. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.
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