Friday January 06, 2012 12:24 PM
By a small margin, participants in Kitco News’ weekly Gold Survey see weaker prices for next week, as worries about Europe will dominate headlines and that could weigh on prices as traders return to the dollar as a safe haven.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 32 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those 24 participants, eight see prices up, while nine see prices down, and seven are neutral on prices. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical chart analysts.
Those who see weaker prices said a return to concerns about the European sovereign debt situation will cause prices to fall again, much like it did last year on these worries. The dollar was the preferred safe haven when worries about Europe were raised and the dollar strength has been a weight on the market.
Further, said Carlos Perez-Santalla of PVM Futures, gold could be pressured by “position cleansing for commodities during Index fund rebalancing,” which also takes place next week. Price supports for gold are seen at $1,600 an ounce, then at $1,580.
Those who see higher prices said the recent weakness in gold has lured some bargain hunters; additionally, the start of 2012 has also meant some investors are reestablishing bullish positions in gold. Some suggest the saber-rattling by Iran regarding closing the strategically important Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the European Union boycotting oil purchases from the Middle Eastern country is positive for gold’s price. Those who see higher prices seen gold retaking the 200-day moving average, which comes in around $1,629 and trading as high as $1,645.
Survey participants who are neutral on gold or at least expect it will trade in a sideways pattern said the market is still trying to establish a direction in the early days of 2012.
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News firstname.lastname@example.org
Alexander Letourneau contributed to the survey.