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Gold Survey: Lower Gold Prices Forecast For Next Week – Survey Participants

Friday November 01, 2013 11:59 AM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are expected to fall next week, a majority of participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey said.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 19 responded this week. Of these, three see prices up, while 13 see prices down and three see prices sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

Last week, a majority number of survey participants were bullish. As of noon EDT Friday, December gold on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was down about $44 an ounce for the week.

Those who expect weaker prices cited the lack of inflation, particularly after this week’s lower-than-expected inflation readings out the eurozone.

“We have suggested that the European economy has not found its legs and deflation was the primary concern. The suggestion that the EU is considering lowering rates re-enforces the weak tone to the European economies. Short term, this will create U.S. (dollar) inflows which should be negative for gold; however, should the issues become more severe, a financial contagion could begin to spread, with gold once again becoming a safe-haven play,” said Peter Hug, Kitco’s global trading director.

Others pointed to technical-chart considerations.

“Prices are headed lower despite positive seasonal forces. Until we clear 1375, the uptrend (if any) can be called into question,” said Mark Leibovit, editor of VR Gold Letter.

Those who see prices rising said the gold market’s current focus on future tapering is misplaced.

“Gold’s response to the latest Fed meeting and comments is one-sided, focusing only on the future tapering.  We have heard about tapering in the future often enough not to be scared any more…  Instead, the gold market should focus on the fact that the Fed did not taper this month, nor last, and is unlikely to on (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke’s last meeting; or over Christmas; or (Fed chair nominee Janet) Yellen’s first meeting; or during the midst of the next U.S. budget talks and debt-ceiling crisis.  So we are already into March with no likely reduction in bond buying.  This is positive for gold,” said Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer, Adrian Day Asset Management.

Kitco Gold Survey

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

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