The Days Of Bitcoin 'Stealing Gold's Thunder' Could Be Over
(Kitco News) - Gold might breach the key psychological level of $1,300 by year-end after all, as a corrective move in the surging cryptocurrency market could bring some attention back to the yellow metal, according to the chief economist at ABC Bullion.
“As it stands right now, gold could see the $1,300 mark or just above by year-end,” Jordan Eliseo told Kitco News.
The price correction that bitcoin is seeing right now might have an impact on gold and serve as a new catalyst for an upward move.
“More volatility in the cryptocurrency space might push a little more money towards gold,” Eliseo said. “Bitcoin has been, for lack of a better description, stealing a bit of gold’s thunder over the last couple of months. If bitcoin prices begin to correct meaningfully, this might give gold a boost.”
Bitcoin tumbled over the weekend, plummeting from an all-time high of $7,899.90 on November 8 to just $5,450.40 on November 12, according to Kitco's aggregated charts. Since then, the popular digital currency rebounded and was last seen trading at $6,585.90.
The major drop coincided with the launch of bitcoin’s second offshoot known as bitcoin gold on Sunday.
On top of that, the $1,300 level is looking more within reach because the market has largely priced in the highly anticipated Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December, which should no longer be an obstacle, Eliseo noted.
But, for now, the precious metal is stuck trading in a tight range, with no catalyst powerful enough to break the battle between the gold’s bulls and bears.
“We might stay in this narrow range for a little while yet. There are a few forces bearing down on gold — physical demand is relatively soft and risk assets are still performing well,” Eliseo added. “If you look at where it is relative to 50- and 100-day moving averages, you can see why gold is trading in this very narrow range right now.”
December Comex gold was last at $1,276.30, down 0.20% on the day.
On a positive note, there is still clear interest from the hedge fund community, with U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reporting on Monday that hedge funds and money managers raised their net long positions in Comex gold and silver contracts in the week to November 7.
Another key driver working in favor of gold is geopolitics. “If there was a geopolitical flare-up between North Korea and the U.S., or continued uncertainty in the Middle East, or a decline in equity markets, that would help push gold higher,” Eliseo explained.
On the downside, rising stock markets could put additional pressure on the yellow metal, with traders carefully watching what happens with the U.S. tax reform.
“Maybe more confidence around tax plan in the U.S. could also see gold head south. We just have to wait and see what actually transpires,” he said. “But, until something changes, this $1,270-1,290 range makes sense.”