Kitco News Gold Survey: Gold Prices Seen Maintaining Their Shine
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(Kitco News) - Voters in the weekly Kitco News gold survey look for the precious metal to rise again next week, with traders and analysts citing the market’s ability to develop a solid technical floor – so far at least – plus uncertainty at how smooth the sailing will be for proposed tax cuts in the U.S. Congress.
A total of 16 market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. Nine, or 56%, called for gold to rise. Six participants, or 38%, are neutral or else look for gold to be sideways, while only one, or 6%, said lower.
Meanwhile, 563 votes were cast in an online Main Street poll. A total of 314 voters, or 56%, looked for gold to rise in the next week. Another 147, or 26%, said lower, while 102, or 18%, were neutral.
For the trading week now winding down, 86% of Wall Street voters and 64% of Main Street voters were bullish. As of 11:05 a.m. EST, they were right, as Comex December gold was up by 1.1% for the week so far to $1,288.10 an ounce.
So far in 2017, but not counting the current week, Wall Street forecasters collectively were right 26 of 44 times for a winning percentage of 59%. Main Street was right 27 of 43 times for 63%.
“Gold is going to go higher,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures. “It is trying to bottom out and move higher. If we start getting above $1,300, I think we’ll see real movement.”
Colin Cieszynski, vice president and regional director with the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, said he remains bullish.
“A nice base continues to form between $1,260 and $1,290,” Cieszynski said. “Higher lows in the price along with uptrends in the RSI [Relative Strength Index] and on-balance volume indicate increasing underlying accumulation and growing upward momentum. Resistance appears in the $1,300 to $1,305 area.”
Jim Wyckoff, analyst with Kitco, said “technicals slightly favor the bulls on a near-term basis.” Mark Leibovit, editor of the VR Gold Letter, said gold is in a “seasonally positive period.”
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, also looks for higher prices next week.
“Though the tax bill passed the House, it has an uphill battle in the Senate, and then the two chambers need to agree,” Day said. “Approval of a tax-cutting and simplification measure would be positive for the U.S. economy, stock market and dollar, and therefore negative for gold. But the next week or two may see setbacks in getting even this watered-down bill approved, and that would be positive for gold.”
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS (Switzerland) SA, is among those who sees gold mostly staying within its recent range, projecting roughly $1,275 on the downside and somewhere between $1,285-$1,295 on the upside.
“I don’t think there is going to be any fireworks for the next week, unfortunately,” he said.