Off The Wire
METALS-Copper pushed lower on worries over China, falling oil price
* LME/ShFE arb: * LME copper stocks lowest since July
* Copper market seen balanced for foreseeable future
* Aluminium set for biggest fall since April 2016
(Updates with closing prices)
By Peter Hobson
LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Copper prices dropped for a third day and aluminium fell to the lowest since mid-August as concerns over demand in top consumer China and declining oil prices pushed investors to sell.
"There is higher risk aversion among market participants, with the oil price down as well, and there are lingering concerns about China," said Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann, predicting that metals prices would fall further.
COPPER: Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 0.7 percent at $6,760 a tonne after hitting $6,737, the lowest since Nov. 17. The metal used in power and construction has fallen 3.5 percent from Friday's close.
TECHNICALS: Copper moved below its 50-day moving average at around $6,798.
LME STOCKS: Headline inventories in LME-registered warehouses fell by 4,950 tonnes to 191,725 tonnes, the lowest since July 2016 and down around 40 percent from a high of 313,850 in September, supporting prices. SHFE STOCKS: Copper stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have however risen by around 60,000 tonnes since September, reducing fears of shortages. SUPPLIES: The global copper market will be balanced for the foreseeable future even as mine supplies tighten and demand from China, the biggest producer and consumer of metals, remains strong, copper company executives said. PERU OUTPUT: Peru, the world's No. 2 copper producer, will likely churn out 2.5 million tonnes of copper in 2018 and 3 million tonnes in 2021, the vice minister of mining said. CHILE OUTPUT: No. 1 producer Chile produced 512,730 tonnes of copper in October, up 13.3 percent from the same period a year before. CHINA ECONOMY: Economic growth in China has shown signs of slowing and blue-chip stocks were sold off in the last week. CHINA SMELTERS: China's environmental crackdown is the "biggest uncertainty" facing the nation's copper smelters, said an executive from Jiangxi Copper Co. ALUMINIUM: LME aluminium ended down 1.6 percent at $2,068 a tonne after touching $2,053, the lowest since Aug. 16. Trading after the official closing price it was on track for the biggest one-day fall since April 2016.
TECHNICALS: Aluminium fell through levels around the 100-day moving average at $2,080, triggering technical selling, said a trader.
DUMPING: The United States launched the first U.S. government-initiated anti-subsidy and anti-dumping probes in decades into imports of Chinese aluminium alloy sheet. OIL: Crude prices fell for a third day ahead of a summit this week at which OPEC and Russia look set to prolong supply cuts until the end of 2018. PRICES: Nickel closed 1.5 percent higher at 11,520; zinc ended flat at $3,157; lead finished up 0.3 percent at $2,435; and tin ended 0.1 percent lower at $19,525.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Top base and precious metals analysis - GFMS LME/ShFE arb ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Additional reporting by Melanie Burton; Editing by Susan Fenton and David Evans)