Melek Wins LBMA Gold-Outlook Contest; Kendall Tops In Silver
(Kitco News) - Bart Melek, head of commodities strategy at TD Securities, was the winner of the London Bullion Market Association’s gold-forecasting contest for 2017, while ICBC Standard Bank analyst Tom Kendall was first in silver.
Both analysts are frequently quoted by Kitco News.
At the start of last year, Melek forecast gold would average $1,256 an ounce. That was only slightly off of the actual 2017 average, which the LBMA put at $1,257.15. Ross Strachan (Thomson Reuters GFMS) was second with a $1,259 forecast, while third was Bhargava Vaidya (B.N Vaidya & Associates) with $1,260 outlook.
Kendall forecast silver would average $17.10; the LBMA listed the actual average at $17.05. The winner was determined by a tie-breaker, as Eddie Nagao (Sumitomo Corp.) also forecast $17.10, but Kendall won as a result of his narrower forecast range, the LBMA said. Third place was Bhargava Vaidya an average of $17.25.
Meanwhile, Glyn Stevens (independent) was the platinum winner with a $935 average. The actual average for the full year was $948.49, the LBMA said. Eddie Nagao took second with his forecast of $928, while Melek took third at $984
William Adams, of Metals Bulletin Ltd., was the palladium winner with an average forecast of $850. The actual average price for the full year was $868.96, the LBMA said. The next two finishers were Thorsten Proettel (LBBW) with an $840 forecast and Ross Norman (Sharps Pixley) with an $828 forecast.
In the LBMA survey conducted for 2017, analysts collectively were bullish for all four metals. Compared to the price in the first half of January 2017, they had forecast a 5.3% increase in gold to $1,244, although the actual average was 1% above expectations at $1,257.15. Analysts had been most bullish about the silver price, forecasting a 7.1% increase to $17.77, although the average ended up being below this at $17.05.
Analysts had collectively forecast an increase of 4.9% in platinum to $1,014. This was the one metal for which they got the price direction wrong, as the average in 2017 fell by 2% to $948.49. They predicted a modest increase of 2.4% in palladium to $762, which proved to be too conservative, as palladium ended the year as the best performing of the four metals with a 16.7% increase to $868.96.