Kitco News Gold Survey: No Clear Consensus On Gold Price Next Week
(Kitco News) - Wall and Main Street are split on the future direction of gold prices, based on the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey.
Nineteen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. There were seven votes each, or 37%, for either higher or sideways. Another five voters, or 26%, looked for the metal to fall in the week ahead.
Exactly 900 voters took part in an online Main Street poll. A total of 423 voters, or 47%, said bullish. Another 366, or 41%, said lower, while 111, or 12%, were neutral.
For the trading week now winding down, 60% of Wall Street voters and 63% of Main Street voters were bullish. Around of 11:01 a.m. EST, Comex April gold was down 1.9% for the week so far to $1,330.50 an ounce.
Not counting the current week, Wall Street and Main Street are both 3-3 so far in 2018. For the year 2017, Main Street was right 31 of 50 times for a winning percentage of 62%. Wall Street forecasters collectively were right 30 of 51 times for 59%.
Christopher Vecchio, senior currency strategist at DailyFx.com, is bullish on gold. Although bond yields pushed to a four-year high this week, gold has been fairly resilient and that could signal regime change in the marketplace, he said.
“This is a good time to buy gold, given the rising credit risks ahead,” he said. “At this time, it would be beneficial to rotate out of equities and into gold.”
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, also looks for gold to rise.
“Sentiment is clearly changing for gold,” Day said. “It will be an uneven path for now, but any wobbliness in the broad market or increase in inflation numbers will boost gold.”
A reader from Florida named Max said he is bullish on gold for the long term.
“I know we saw a sell-off earlier this week as spot price was above $1,340, but I think gold will rebound in the long term,” Max said. “If anything, I feel now is a great time to buy gold on the ‘dip,’ as they say.”
Meanwhile, Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at City Index, said that while the next trend in gold is unclear, he nevertheless is slightly bearish on the metal due to his views on the foreign-exchange market.
“I am bullish on the U.S. dollar, so I guess I’m bearish on gold,” the analyst said. “The U.S. dollar looks oversold and fundamentals don’t support these lower prices.”
Ralph Preston, principal with Heritage West Financial, also sees gold moving lower in the near term, citing a “triple-top failure at $1,360.”
Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist with LaSalle Futures Group, said he looks for dollar strength to keep pressuring gold. Further, Nedoss pointed out, gold has broken below its 10- and 20-day moving averages of $1,335.70 and $1,337.10, meaning some technical-chart weakness as well.
Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst with Kitco, looks for gold to be sideways in the short term since “technical momentum has stalled for now.” Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS (Switzerland) SA, looks for the metal to be range-bound between $1,321 and $1,360, barring any unexpected breaking news.