Undervalued Gold Producers Have 'Explosive' Potential - Former Bear Stearns Analyst
(Kitco News) - Forget overvalued tech and blue-chip stocks; one former Bear Stearns analyst has his eye on major gold producers as this sector is significantly undervalued.
In a report last week, Jesse Felder, creator of the Felder Report, said that he is calling his pick of major producers his BANG stocks: Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX, TSX: ABX), Agnico Eagle (NYSE: AEM, TSX: AEM), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) and Goldcorp (NYSE: GG, TSX: G).
“I like the acronym not just because of the allusion to and juxtaposition with FANG [Facebook (Nasdaq: FB), Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX, Google (Nasdaq: GOOGL)] but also due to the fact that rising gold prices could make for explosive gains in these stocks if their valuations begin to normalize at all,” he said in his report.
In his analysis of the major gold producers, he said that the discounts on this group are more significant than they were in the early 2000s, the end of the last major gold bear market. Felder also added that the companies’ profitability is significantly better than it was at the previous market lows 15 years ago.
“Furthermore, the median 3-year revenue growth for this group has just turned positive again as it did at the start of the last major bull market for gold and the miners,” he said. “A normalization of the valuations for this group would yield a 50% gain for the stocks even without any upside in the gold price.”
Felder has been relatively bullish on gold since the start of the year. In a report in February, he said that gold has the potential to hit $1,650 an ounce; however, since then, the metal has languished within a solid trading range. Prices are currently trading at the bottom end of its range. June gold futures settled Monday’s session at $1,314.10 an ounce, relatively unchanged on the day.
Not only has the gold price been lackluster but the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) -- which holds all four of Felder’s picks as its top 10 core holdings -- is caught in the middle of a trading range, hovering around $22.70 per share.
Felder’s comments have come following a relatively positive earnings season for the major gold producers. Barrick, Newmont and Agnico Eagle all reported higher profits in the first quarter, compared to the first quarter of 2017, as rising prices offset lower production levels. Only Goldcorp reported a miss in its first-quarter earnings as gold production and sales declined compared to the previous year.