Gold, Silver Hit Multi-Month Lows Amid Lack of Bullish News
(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are trading moderately lower in early-afternoon U.S. dealings Thursday. Gold hit a nearly 12-month low today and silver notched a seven-month low. Gold and silver bulls need a good dose of bullish fundamental news, which has been absent from the marketplace in recent weeks. Chart-based sellers in the futures markets have been emboldened this week, amid price downtrends in place for gold and silver. However, both markets are now technically oversold on a short-term basis and due for decent rebounds very soon. Also, the big rally in crude oil prices recently suggests the raw commodity sector has bottomed out and will see better days just ahead. Many raw commodity prices at present are being viewed as value-buying opportunities, on a longer-term basis, including the precious metals. That’s my bias, too. August gold futures were last down $4.90 an ounce at $1,251.20. July Comex silver was last down $0.191 at $15.955 an ounce.
World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are slightly firmer in afternoon New York trading. Global trade war fears continue to somewhat limit buying interest in world equity markets, but are not producing enough fear to prompt demand for safe-haven gold and silver.
In overnight news, the Indian Rupee currency hit a new all-time low against the U.S. dollar, in part due to the spike in oil prices the past week. The strong dollar against the Rupee is likely limiting Indian demand for gold (priced in U.S. dollars on the world market). India is a major gold consumer, second only to China.
The U.S. data point of the week is today’s final estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product, which is seen coming in at up 2.2%, year-on-year.
The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index slightly lower after hitting a 12-month high overnight. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a 3.5-year high of $74.03 a barrel today.
Technically, gold bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A 2.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now well short-term oversold and due for a corrective bounce very soon. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,286.80. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,230.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $1,261.90 and then at Tuesday’s high of $1,269.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,249.60 and then at $1,245.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5
The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $16.75 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the December low of $15.805. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $16.095 and then at $16.295. Next support is seen at today’s low of $15.88 and then at $15.805. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
July N.Y. copper closed down 310 points at 295.35 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit an 11-month low today. The copper bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 310.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 285.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 298.10 cents and then at 300.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 293.00 cents and then at 290.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.