Gold Bears Still Growling, Prices Near 1-Year Low
(Kitco News) - Gold prices are moderately lower in early-afternoon dealings, and trading near the recent one-year low, basis nearby futures (and a 1.5-year low basis the December futures contract). A stronger U.S. dollar index that is near a 12-month high continues to scare buyers away from the precious metals markets. December gold futures were last down $5.20 an ounce at $1,222.40. September Comex silver was last down $0.047 at $15.405 an ounce.
There remains a lack of bullish fundamental news to support new buying interest in safe-haven gold and silver markets. Combine that with the bearish technical postures of both metals and dull summertime trading, and you get a gradual drift lower in prices.
The World Gold Council has reported that gold demand in India will be better in the second half of this year, due to good crop harvests and the festival seasons. India and China run neck-and-neck as the leading gold consumer in the world.
Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for July. Wednesday’s ADP national employment report for July showed a rise of 219,000. That number was higher than the expected rise of 185,000. The non-farm payrolls number on Friday is forecast to come in at up 190,000. The stronger ADP number suggests Friday’s figure could come in higher, too.
The other key “outside market” today finds Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher and trading above $69.00 a barrel. If not for the rally in the oil market today, metals prices could be trading even lower.
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Technically, the gold bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. A 3.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,250.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,200.00. First resistance is seen today’s high of $1,230.00 and then at this week’s high of $1,237.80. First support is seen at the July low of $1,221.00 and then at $1,210.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0
The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are still no early clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $16.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $15.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $15.635 and then at $15.70. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $15.34 and then at the July low of $15.185. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
September N.Y. copper closed down 60 points at 274.15 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 300.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 267.35 cents. First resistance is seen at 277.50 cents and then at 280.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 270.75 cents and then at 267.35 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.