Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Under Pressure Again as Bulls Fading

By Jim Wyckoff
11 March 2010, 8:24 a.m.

Gold prices are weaker in early trading Thursday. Bulls are fading this week as the five-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart for April gold futures is now in jeopardy of being negated. April Comex gold was last traded down $1.20 an ounce, at $1,106.90.

Spot gold in Europe was lower Thursday on follow-through selling pressure from solid losses in New York futures prices on Wednesday. Gold traders are still keeping a close eye on developments in China. Rising inflation in China is prompting concern China's government may raise interest rates, which would likely choke off demand for commodities from that nation, including precious metals. European gold traders are also taking note of the deteriorating near-term technical picture for gold.

Ideas Greece's debt crisis is moderating also have pressured gold somewhat this week, due to a lessening need to hedge a weakening Euro currency.

In overnight trading, the London A.M. gold fix was $1,106.00 versus the previous afternoon fixing of $1,120.50. The London silver fixing was $16.91 an ounce, versus $17.47 the previous trading session.

Technically, April Comex gold remains in a five-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely after this week's downside price action. A drop and close below solid technical support at $1,100 an ounce in April futures would produce more near-term chart damage. The triple moving averages overlaid on the daily bar chart for April gold (4-, 9- and 18-day) are now showing a warning signal to the bulls, as the 4-day moving average has now moved below the 9-day and 18-day average. A stronger early clue that the near-term price uptrend in April gold is ending would be if the 9-day crossed below the 18-day moving average. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,111.70 and then at  $1,120.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below shorter-term support at Wednesday's low of $1,103.10 and then at $1,100.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci pivot level for April gold: $1,095.00.

Comex silver futures are near steady in early trading Thursday. May silver last traded down 1.3 cents an ounce at $17.005. Prices remain in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily chart. Silver has not seen the near-term technical damage inflicted this week that has gold. However, a bearish weekly low close on Friday would produce near-term technical damage in May silver futures. At present, however, silver bulls maintain the near-term technical advantage. May silver finds shorter-term technical resistance at $17.25 an ounce, and then at $17.53. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support for May silver is located at the overnight low of $16.835 and then at $16.50. Sell stops are likely placed just below those levels. Today's key Fibonacci pivot level for May silver futures is located at $16.90.

By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jim@jimwyckoff.com