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Market Not Pricing In Hawkish Surprise From Fed

Commentaries & Views

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1340

Fundamentals: Gold is trading higher this morning on a weaker Dollar ahead of today’s Fed policy decision at 1:00 pm CT. Also, this week is Nonfarm Payroll Friday and we expect volatility to pick up through here. Yesterday, solid Case Shiller data along with better than expected Consumer Confidence encouraged much needed selling in Gold. Still, as the Dollar has weakened once again into this morning, we believe the market is not pricing in the potential for a hawkish surprise in verbiage from the Fed and because of this, the near-term risk is to the downside in Gold.

Technicals: Our Bias remains Neutral in the near-term. However, we are unequivocally long-term bullish Gold. At this level there is little value ahead of the Fed, however, there are ways to reduce risk while maintaining a long position and we encourage you to reach out to our trade desk at 312-278-0500 in order to discuss this. We cannot become neat-term bullish Gold until first key support at 1329.1-1331.9 is achieved at minimum.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1349.7-1351.4**, 1365-1370***, 1377.8**, 1392.6***, 1432.9**

Support: 1329.1-1331.9**, 1321.7***, 1307.6-1312***

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
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