Is Barrick Gold Bottoming?
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
We have seen downgrade after downgrade on Barrick Gold (ABX) for years. Many keep looking lower and lower, with some even considering that this stalwart in the miners’ complex may even go out of business due to its debt load.
However, back in 2015, it was one of the first miners to bottom. In fact, when we saw the potential bottoming of ABX in 2015, we actually opened our EWT Miners Portfolio in September of 2015, and the ABX was one of our first buys.
But after it hit its high over a year and a half ago, it has been within a corrective pullback from the August 2016 high. And, since that time, it has seen sentiment about the company drop consistently.
In the last quarter of 2017, when the GDX broke its upper support in September, I noted that the ABX has a set up to take it down to the 11-12 region, and we were in the 16-17 region at the time. And, if you note the “buy zone” on the chart below, it was placed there in September of 2017.
Currently, ABX has struck our downside target but has not confirmed that the downside is yet complete. We are now just below the resistance we were looking for it to hit its head upon in the 12.50 region. As long as ABX remains below this resistance, it has a downside set up to drop towards the 10.80-11 region to complete this long-term pullback in which it has been mired since mid-2016.
However, if we see strength through the 12.50 region, and it can continue to rally up towards the 13.50-14 region in the next few weeks, then it provides us with a strong indication that the lows for ABX have been seen, and we are likely setting up the next major bullish move for ABX for the rest of 2018.
But, under either circumstance, I expect the ABX to strike a significant bottom in the near term, and see it resume its bull market run into the end of the year.
Lastly, since ABX has been a major drag on the GDX of late, I believe that the GDX will finally begin its bullish pattern once the ABX finds a bottom and is no longer a drag on the GDX.