November Is Not A Good Month For Gold
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
Last week’s close: Settled at 1235.8, up 3.4
Fundamentals: On one side of the coin, Gold has held ground very well given the Dollar’s recent strength. Safe-haven demand amidst global equity volatility has kept a bid under the metal; it is supposed to do this. On the other side of the coin Gold traded to a high of 1246 on Friday, this is our major three-star resistance and it is 5.1% from the low on October 8th and 6.8% from the low on August 16th. Furthermore, November is not typically a favorable month for Gold. Ultimately, we believe Gold will be much higher than this in January, however, we must remember we are traders and understand that the upside is limited in the near-term. On Friday, we instructed those who stay in contact with our trade desk to capitalize on Gold and lock in recent gains. This morning, PCE data was in line with expectations. There is a slew of data as the week unfolds and we look to Chicago Fed President Evans at 8:45 am CT today. Nonfarm Payroll is the pinnacle on Friday.
Technicals: We are now Neutral Gold for the first time in months but holding a slight Bullish Bias because we are unequivocally so over the long-run. Gold failed at our major three-star resistance on Friday and finished nearly 1% from there, this cannot go unnoticed. Still, Gold is battling very well and holding first key support at 1227.6-1230.5 and as long as it does, the bulls are still in the driver’s seat.
Resistance: 1240.5*, 1244-1250***
Support: 1227.6-1230.5**, 1219.6-1220.7***, 1213.2**, 1204.3-1205.9***