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Gold Needs To Close Above $1,337

Commentaries & Views

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1331.2, up 1.2

Fundamentals: Gold traded to a high of 1342.3 overnight and price action has actually dissipated since CPI data came in soft. Core CPI each MoM and YoY came in below expectations by one tenth and furthermore, the probability of a Fed cut by the July 31st meeting has moved from 78.1% to 83.4% after the data. Not only is the reaction in Gold unenthusiastic but such is the same for the Treasury complex. It is odd that Gold cannot extend gains on such news and for this reason we advise those who followed us in buying against major three-star support yesterday, to capitalize in one manner or another with more than a $10 swing into this morning.

Technicals: Gold traded just shy of strong resistance at 1344.9-1349.8. This aligns multiple indicators as well as Sunday’s gap lower. First key resistance comes in at 1335.7-1337.4 and a failure to close above here today would make us nervous and lay the groundwork for a failure to hold gains once again. Considering all of this, we are reducing our Bullish Bias today but remain unequivocally long-term Bullish Gold.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1335.7-1337.4**, 1344.9-1349.8***, 1361.5***

Support: 1324.6-1327.7****, 1316**, 1307.3-1310.1***

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