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Gold Keeps Pushing The Tape

Commentaries & Views

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1336.8, up 5.6

Fundamentals: The good news is that Gold has held ground very well. However, as we noted here yesterday, it is a bit of a disappointment to not see Gold extend gains after CPI data was soft. Treasury markets are upbeat and the odds for a Fed cut at the July 31st meeting have risen to 86% as of this morning. Still, the Dollar remains a headwind for Gold as it is the best house on a bad block and Gold is priced in dollars. Both weekly Jobless Claims and Import/Export Price Index both came in worse than expectations this morning. Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East should also keep a bid under the metal ahead of the weekend. Tomorrow will help define what has so far been as a strong week; Retail Sales and fresh June Michigan Consumer data are both due.

Technicals: Gold settled right first key resistance yesterday in what has overall been a constructive recovery from Monday’s sharp reversal; major three-star support held beautifully. Still, the tape is pushing the upper band of its 5-year range and for this reason, although we are unequivocally long-term Bullish in Bias, we remain only cautiously upbeat at these levels.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1335.7-1337.4**, 1344.9-1349.8***, 1361.5***
Support: 1324.6-1327.7****, 1316**, 1307.3-1310.1***

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