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Gold Is Stable At $1,400

Commentaries & Views

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1412, down 3.4

Fundamentals: Gold has been stable above $1400 and after a run like we’ve seen over not only the last week but the entire month of June, this is all we could ask for. Bill Baruch spoke with Kitco’s Daniela Cambone yesterday discussing the Dollar and the potentially surprising impact the G-20 Summit could have on Gold. The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE Index, was in line with expectations this morning. At 1.6%, it is still well below the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The odds of a rate cut in July are still fully priced-in and the probability of 50-basis points sits at 26.1%. June Chicago PMI is due at 8:45 am CT and final June Michigan Consumer data is out at 9:00 am CT.

Technicals: The line in the sand is major three-star support at 1396.9-1400.1. As long as Gold holds above here on a daily closing basis, the tape remains near, intermediate and long-term bullish. Last night’s spike to a high of 1427.8 has dissipated; there is clearly a headwind of resistance at 1432.9. Still, a continued close above 1415.4-1418.2 is extremely constructive and close out above 1432.9 is immediate-term bullish.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 1432.9***, 1484.5***

Pivot: 1415.4-1418.2

Support: 1396.9-1400.1***, 1392.6**, 1377.5-1380.3***, 1361.5***

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