Hawaii Six O - Gary Wagner
The Big Picture; Gold has Been in a Bullish Trend Since December 2015
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Although gold prices have pulled back substantially from the highs achieved yesterday and today, the precious yellow metal did close higher on the week. More importantly today’s low which came in at $1421.10 matches the former resistance trend line which was created from a series of lower highs on a daily gold chart.
On Wednesday of this week gold opened just above the support trendline drawn from a series of higher lows on a daily chart, and closed just at or below the resistance trendline. This was followed by Thursday’s action which opened and closed above resistance trendline. This price action flipped former resistance trendline into a support trendline.
Today gold traded to the highest level since May 2013. However, the overall characteristic of gold prices during 2013 was a defined steep sharp decline from just below $1700 per ounce to just below $1200 an ounce in a single year.
On an extremely long-term basis gold has been in an upswing since hitting an absolute bottom in December 2015 when prices reached a low of $1045 per ounce. Since then gold has methodically moved to higher pricing with a defined ceiling at approximately $1370-$1380 per ounce. That all changed last month when gold broke above that long-standing resistance closing above $1400 per ounce for the first time since 2013.
So far, this month has resulted in gold gaining even more ground trading to the highest high since it bottomed in December 2015. That high occurred in trading today when gold futures basis the most active August contract traded to $1454.40.
Especially on trading days such as today when gold has seen a tremendous price range and closed definitively off of the highs, it is important to stand back and look at the big picture. Clearly the last couple of months have defined a new era in gold pricing in which we have seen gold futures break above the long-standing resistance of $1370 that has been so prevalent and price defining over the last three years. More so it lends more technical evidence that on a long-term basis the lows that gold traded to at the end of 2015 remain the bottom and more importantly the conclusion of the long multiyear correction that began after gold achieved its all-time record high price above $1900 per ounce.
For the first time since the correction began gold is once again above $1400, and when put into perspective the pullback after achieving highs above $1450.00 to today’s closing price at approximately $1426.40, gold has certainly had a stellar performance.
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Wishing you as always, good trading,