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CPM Group Trade Signal - August 16th 2019

Commentaries & Views

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Time Stamp
Prices as of 9:00 a.m. EDT (14h00 GMT) 16 August 2019 $1,522.00 (Basis the December 2019 Comex Contract).

Direction: Buy

Target Price / Range: $1,535

Timeframe: 16-08-2019 to 23-08-2019

If short-term investors have been taking our advice this week they would have bought at $1,514.30 on Tuesday, 13 August, sold when prices got to $1,534.90 on Thursday, bought fresh long positions later on Thursday at 1,525.40, and then taken profits later that afternoon when prices popped up to $1,537. They would now be going long again at $1,522.00. They would have locked in $32.2 of upside for a 2.1% return over three days.

Meanwhile, problems and uncertainties remain abroad throughout the world. The economic environment clearly is worsening, but also is clearly now worsening as bad as some commentators and equity market participants seem to think. (That’s not fair. The equity market volatility may well represent more the power of computerized trading models than irrational fears and exuberances. It may just be the public commentary that is out of step with reality.) Political problems are more real and severe, from Hong Kong and Beijing to Washington, Tel Aviv, and the U.K. Parliament. Meanwhile Kim Jong Un feels neglected and upstaged by attention-grabbing events elsewhere, so he is starting to rattle his oxygen-powered sabres. Vladimir Putin must be wandering the lonely halls of the Kremlin wondering how things could go so badly in so many places without any recent direct meddling by him.

This remains a paper market, with little physical gold being bought. Silver, too, for that matter. U.S. Mint gold Eagle sales have totaled 3,000 ounces in the first half of August, compared to an average of 11,500 per month for the full months February through April. (January sales, always a big month, totaled 65,000 ounces.) Silver Eagle sales have totaled 252,000 ounces per month, compared to 1.4 million ounces per month in February – April and 4.0 million ounces in January.

At some point gold prices will break out of the range. It is a 50-50 chance whether the break is upward or downward. Investors need to protect themselves and position themselves to profit from a move in either, or both, directions. While they wait, those short-term profit opportunities are continuing within the range of $1,500 - $1,540.

Note: Discretion should be allowed at +/- $0.50 from the target.

Disclaimer – Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.


Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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