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Weak manufacturing data was gold’s buy signal

Commentaries & Views

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1489, up 18.6

Fundamentals: Plain and simple, yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing data was the buy signal in Gold. Despite a technical breakdown, the fundamental narrative has not changed; the Fed must rescue deteriorating growth. The odds of a Fed cut in October have jumped from 45% to 70% as of this morning. Today, Philadelphia Fed President Harker did not comment on Monetary policy, but it was a slightly weaker read on the Private ADP Payroll survey at 135k vs. 140k that further boosted the metal into U.S hours. NY Fed President Williams speaks at 9:50 am CT. Gold’s weekly close will be very depended on Nonfarm Payroll Friday, stay nimble, we are here to help.

Technicals: Price action is in a sharp recovery mode this morning and the bulls are back in the driver’s seat above 1494-1498. Frist key resistance comes in at 1503.7-1504, but there is no reason to not technically believe Gold makes a move to major three-star resistance at 1513-1515.6 before Nonfarm Payroll Friday (unless a very strong ISM Non-Manufacturing tomorrow).

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 1503.7-1504**, 1513-1515.6***, 1527.5***

Pivot: 1495-1498

Support: 1484.5-1487.2***, 1450-1454**, 1413.2***

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