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2020: year of the silver metal rat

Commentaries & Views

  1. To view the world’s most exciting daily chart  Double-click to enlarge this magnificent silver chart.

  2. A significant bull wedge is in play, and the target zone is well above the $19.75 area highs!

  3. UBS heavyweight analyst Dom Schnider has a $1650 target for 2020, and $1550 for December of this year.

  4. Gold clearly has substantial institutional interest now, and rightly so.

  5. Interestingly, basis the latest COT report, the banks have covered a substantial amount of short positions.

  6. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart. Gold has blasted higher after touching the $1465 key support zone which I outlined as a “buy zone of champions”.

  7. It’s important not to clutter the gold charts with too many trendlines and oscillators.  That’s because gold is a simple but volatile asset.

  8. Investors who want to get rich with gold should focus on basic support zones on the daily and weekly charts.

  9. Now, most analysts are looking for a big surge higher or a very deep correction.

  10. Amongst technicians, I’m probably alone in forecasting a mild consolidation here, and then a decent $100/ounce rally into the $1650 area.

  11. To view this scenario on the daily gold chart. Double-click to enlarge.

  12. My technical scenario fits with the UBS fundamental view, and my fundamental analysis of the gold market is also similar.  The bottom line:

  13. Double-click to enlarge this short-term US stock market chart.

  14. While the technical picture is weak and the month of October is dangerous in the late stage of the business cycle, it’s probably too early to get excited about a recession or a US stock market crash.

  15. The Chinese zodiac describes 2020 as the year of the “Metal Rat” and this is the year that I’m forecasting US stock markets will come under considerably more stress than they face now.

  16. A US election lurks ahead, and I refer to the US democrat presidential candidates as “demorats”, due to their socialist lean. Rats also have a history of eating paper and cotton (think fiat).

  17. Gold is plodding higher as central banks cut rates mildly but steadily.  A return of QE is likely, but this time it will be modest and function more as a long-term crutch for governments that refuse to cut spending or debt.

  18. While anything is possible, I don’t think gold market investors who missed the $1167-$1566 rally are likely to get an opportunity to rebuy gold at prices much below $1465.

  19. I’m also predicting that a rally to $1650 is now much more likely than a decline to $1350.  Having said that, investors who are looking for vastly higher prices in 2020 (like $2000+) could also be disappointed. 

  20. I’m forecasting consistent but modest upside action that will again showcase gold, silver, and the miners as the best major assets to own. 

  21. Double-click to enlarge this silver stocks ETF chart.

  22. As the US election nears, I expect Trump and his competitors to begin making promises to significantly ramp up spending and debt.

  23. That’s going to occur against the background of economic growth slowing to sub 2% and a Fed that engages in mild but ongoing rate cuts.

  24. I don’t expect a major rise in inflation in 2020, but I think institutional money managers will show enough concern about it to make silver and the miners of this awesome metal the world’s top performing asset in 2020, the year of the metal rat!
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.