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Gold prices needs to push above $1,474

Commentaries & Views

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1474.2, down 0.1

Fundamentals: Gold is seeing a renewed safe-haven bid as President Trump is expected to sign the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act passed by Congress yesterday. However, risk assets are holding ground incredibly well given that U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and U.S Trade Representative Lighthizer were invited to continue trade talks face to face in Beijing. These two competing narratives will be a price driver for Gold. Additionally, yesterday’s Fed Minutes exuded that the committee is likely to hold off from any further rate cuts and Gold has held very well given that the odds for a cut in December have completely disappeared and there is now a 2% probability the Fed raises in December. The economic data this morning was mixed with Weekly Jobless Claims coming in at the highest level since June while Philly Fed Manufacturing beat expectations. Existing Home Sales are due at 9:00 am CT. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks at 9:10 am CT, he is a 2020 voter.

Technicals: Gold is holding well against resistance at 1471.9-1474 but has been unable to hold higher ground with major three-star resistance overhead. Given the consolidation at this level, our momentum indicator now comes in at 1470 and sustained price action below here will encourage a move down into minor support.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1471.9-1474**, 1482.6-1484.5***, 1491**

Support: 1462.6-1463.9*, 1450-1454***, 1446.2*, 1413.2*** 

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