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This is seasonally a bearish time for gold

Commentaries & Views

Last week’s close: Settled at 1465.1, down 18.00 on Friday and down 7.6 on the week

Fundamentals: Friday’s blowout November Nonfarm Payroll report, yes blowout especially considering October’s revisions, sent Gold back near the lows of the week. Today’s calendar is quieter, and the metal has been able to consolidate, but if equities are bid into Wednesday’s Fed meeting Gold will continue to see slight pressure at a minimum. Still, the odds of action on Wednesday are flat and the Fed is expected to cut 25 basis points by March with a 20% probability. What matters most in the near-term for the metal as it unwinds a seasonally bearish time of year is the Fed’s forward outlook. U.S and China trade is also in the crosshairs with a deadline to increase tariffs quickly approaching December 15th and this could be a huge risk-off catalyst boosting Gold.

Technicals: Friday’s settlement is our pivot today and aligns with our momentum indicator, continued price action below here will leave Gold vulnerable to a direct test to 1453.1-1454. However, if Gold can regain previous support, now resistance, at 1469.2-1472.7 and settle out above here, it will begin to neutralize Friday’s weakness.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1469.2-1472.7**, 1484.9-1486***, 1500**

Pivot 1465.1-1466.8

Support: 1459.8*, 1453.1-1454***

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