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Gold held major exhaustion above, broke below bearish formation 8/11/20

Commentaries & Views

On a macro basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break back above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength.  We have seen $905.5 of this. The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum.  We have attained $744.2 of this so far.  On 4/2 we left a bullish reversal below that warned of continued strength.  We have seen $470.4 so far.   The decent break above $1,899.0 projects this upward $170 minimum, $300 (+) maximum based off an ‘ok formed’ pattern. We have seen $190.2 (including a spread differential of roughly $20).  The decent break above $1,899.0 projects this upward $170 minimum, $300 (+) maximum. We have seen $190.2. The line for this comes in at $1,915.4 today. All of the above bullish formations are now ON HOLD.  The trade above $2,031.5 warned of continued higher trade—saw $57.7 of this before holding exhaustion above and failing back below where this came in at $2,043.6, which I said warns of decent pressure to come in likely for days/weeks—we have seen $52.2 of this so far.  I noted we had a higher timeframe possible exhaustion to contend with that comes in at $2,071.6-93.2 that has the potential to bring in a bearish correction—we held this at $2,089.2 and have rolled over $97.8 so far. 

On a lower timeframe basisThe decent trade below $2,042.4 (+4.3 tics per/hour) put this below a steep formation that projects this downward $23 minimum, $65 (+) maximum.  We have attained $51 of this so far.   If break back above decently, look for decent short covering to come in. This will come in at $2,048.6 (+4.3 tics per/hour starting at 8:20am).  A maintained gap lower will also leave a short-term bearish reversal above that will warn of decent pressure, likely for days—this would come at a key time given we just held a major exhaustion area above. I warned in the Post Market Synopsis yesterday that today has a good likelihood of being a range expansion day—we have already exceeded yesterday’s range on Globex, and are called $36.6 lower as of 5:40am EST.

NOTE: this is just a small portion of the market calls I provide my clients twice daily in the Gold and Energy complex. 'Decent penetrations' are specific amounts and provided to clients daily as well. If you are interested, please feel free to reach out.

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