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Gold projected higher, but a failure of support line should have follow-through

Commentaries & Views

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break back above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength.  We have seen $905.5 of this. The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum.  We have attained $744.2 of this.  On 4/2 we left a bullish reversal below that warned of continued strength.  We have seen $470.7.  All of the above macro bullish formations are ON HOLD. I noted we had a higher timeframe possible exhaustion to contend with that comes in at $2,071.6-93.2 that has the potential to bring in a bearish correction—we held this at $2,089.2 and have rolled over $215.  The trade back below $2,043.6 has brought in $169.4 of the decent pressure we are looking for.  These are ON HOLD as well as we broke above a lower time frame bullish formation mentioned below.  This week has a good likelihood of being a range expansion week.  

On a lower timeframe basis:  We held the lower timeframe exhaustion at $1,999.7-$2,006.5 with a $2,001.2 high and rolled over $89.5.  This is ON HOLD as well.  The decent trade above $1,963.3 (-1.5 tics per/hour) now projects this upward $22 minimum, $180 (+) maximum. If we break back below decently, look for decent pressure to come in.  This will come in at  $1,963.3 (-1.5 tics per/hour starting at 8:20am).  I would also NOTE the Gold is entering into a historically bearish period through early October, and even into December—so if this formation fails, the pressure on the downside could have good follow-through.  We are called $10 higher as of 5:09am.  Today has a good likelihood of being a range expansion day as well.

NOTE: this is just a small portion of the market calls I provide my clients twice daily in the Gold and Energy complex. 'Decent penetrations' are specific amounts and provided to clients daily as well. If you are interested, please feel free to reach out.

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