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Growing Covid-19 cases and election uncertainly fuel gold rally

Commentaries & Views

Throughout Europe and the Midwest United States new infections of Covid-19 have been on the rise.  According to Reuters, Wisconsin as well as other Midwestern states are battling a large spike in new Covid-19 cases, resulting in hospitalizations rising to record levels.

“More than 22,000 new cases were reported on Wednesday across the Midwest, eclipsing the previous record of more than 20,000 on Oct. 9. Hospitalizations in those states reached a record high for a 10th consecutive day, as some hospitals began feeling the strain.”

In Wisconsin hospitals there are only 14% of the intensive care beds available, with 86% of the intensive care beds currently filled with new cases of Covid-19. In Milwaukee hospitals are so overwhelmed that they have opened a field hospital on the former Fairgrounds in West Allis which has been used as the grounds for the state fair since the late 1800s. More than a thousand people were hospitalized in Wisconsin for Covid-19 yesterday. This represents a 25% spike in coronavirus hospitalizations over the last seven days. With the onset of winter many medical experts predict that it will get much worse before it gets better.

Europe is also experiencing a tremendous uptick in new Covid-19 cases, forcing lockdowns in London and portions of France, as a second wave of the coronavirus strikes across the Atlantic.

Then there is the uncertainty of the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. Collectively these issues and events have put pressure on global equities and have been highly supportive of the safe-haven assets, gold and silver.

Gold futures basis the most active December 2020 Comex contract traded to a low today of $1892.70 before market participants bought the dip taking gold once again well over $1900 per ounce. As of 4 PM EST gold futures are fixed at $1912.90 which is a net gain of $5.60 on the day. Although this gain might seem moderate, dollar strength provided headwinds that would have taken gold much higher if the dollar was neutral today.

Spot gold is currently fixed at $1909.60 which is a net gain of $8.40 on the day. However according to the KGX (Kitco Gold Index) market participants bid gold pricing higher by $16.80 and dollar strength decreased the net change on the day by $8.40, erasing exactly half of the gains attributed to buying.

With the unlikelihood of a vaccine being developed this year means that the harsh truth that the pandemic will continue to wreak havoc on economies worldwide is highly probable. This will continue to be highly supportive of safe haven assets such as gold and silver.

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Wishing you as always, good trading and good health,

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.