Contributed Commentaries
Gold in Consolidation Between Formations
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $905.5 of this. The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum. We have attained $744.2 of this. On 4/2 we left a bullish reversal below. We have seen $470.7. We have seen $398.2 of the strength warned about above the $1,690.3-$1,691.0 area. All of the above bullish formations are ON HOLD since 12/31/20. I noted we had a higher timeframe exhaustion to contend with that came in at $2,071.6-93.2 that had the potential to bring in a bearish correction—we held this at $2,089.2 and have rolled over $322 into that correction.The trade back below $2,043.6 has brought in $276.5 of the decent pressure we were looking for.We held exhaustion above at $1,999.7-$2,006.5 with a $2,001.2 high and rolled over $234.The 1/8/21 move down suggests one of two things: 1.) this may be in a new macro bearish stretch, putting the bearish correction from $2,089.2 down back in play, or 2.) we may be building a higher level of consolidation up here—I think the first is more likely.These are now ON HOLD (see below).
On a lower timeframe basis: The decent trade below $1,915.7 (+2 tics per/hour) brought in $114.9 of the $75 (+) maximum. This is ON HOLD. We held downside exhaustion at $1,809.0-04.4 with a $1,800.9 low and rallied $73.7 into a bullish correction/trend. The break above $1,820.0-17.1 brought in $54.5 of strength. The decent trade above $1,848.0 (-1 tic per/hour) projects this upward $17 minimum, $42 (+) maximum. We attained $26.5 before rolling over. HOWEVER, I warned that there are corrective areas of exhaustion to contend with on the way up, and if one of these holds it has the potential to start a new bear structure IF this is a correction. We held the lower one Thursday with a $1,874.6 high and rolled over $31.7 so far. Decent trade below $1,853.8 (+3.3 tics per/hour) will warn of pressure, but this is a minor formation, and I will stop short of suggesting shorting below. Decent trade below $1,839.1 (-1 tic per/hour starting at 8:20am) should bring in decent pressure. CLICK HERE FOR FULL ARTICLE.
