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CPM Group Trade Signal - July 6, 2021

Commentaries & Views

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Time Stamp
Prices as of 2:35 p.m. EDT (19h35 GMT) 6 July 2021 $1,795 (Basis the August 2021 Comex Contract).

Direction: Sell

Initial Target Price/ Range: $1,780

Initial Timeframe: 7 July 2021 to 16 July 2021

Gold prices had been trading in a narrow range of $1,765 - $1,795 ($1,770 - $1,800) since around 17 June. This morning gold broke above that range, running to $1,815.70. By afternoon the thrill was gone and gold subsided back to $1,795.80.

CPM’s weekly video on Friday 2 July focused on a thesis that gold and silver prices (a) have been trading in relatively narrow, unvolatile, trading ranges for several weeks during June, but (b) seemed likely to be more volatile in July, possibly moving both sharply lower and sharply higher over the next four weeks.

Potential For Increased Volatility In Gold and Silver, CPM 2 July 2021

Markets got a taste of this on 6 July. That said, the move above $1,800 was predicated on the OPEC divisions, a consequent upward move in oil prices – which corrected sharply lower later that day, and concerns about the U.S. equity markets. The dollar showed mixed performance, but rose both with gold and then later during the day rose further as gold gave up half of its winnings.

CPM would not be surprised to see gold drop to $1,780 in the next eight trading days. It might even test that support around $1,770 - $1,765. Later in July CPM expects gold prices to strengthen, but the softness in today’s brief rally suggests softness for the next few trading days.


Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM is maintain the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.

Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target. Recommendations are valid until the target date or a new Trade Recommendation or message is issued by CPM.

CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.

Disclaimer – Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.