Contributed Commentaries
CPM Trade Signal - Jan. 13, 2022
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Time Stamp
Prices as of 10:49 a.m. EDT 13 January 2022 $1,816.50 (Basis the February 2022 Comex Contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,800 - $1,810
Initial Timeframe: 13 January 2022 to 21 January 2022
Gold prices have risen from below $1,790 last week to test $1,830. CPM had advised a buy recommendation at $1,792.30 on 7 January.
CPM now recommends that profits be taken. There is potential for prices to retreat back toward $1,800 or $1,810 in the next week or so.
We maintain our view that prices have upward momentum, but (a) see that momentum relatively limited and (b) would not be surprised to see some profit-taking take gold down over the next several trading days.
Toward the last week of January the roll of the February Comex futures contract into April may push prices back toward $1,830. As of 12 January there were 29.9 million ouncs of February Comex open interest. Around 16.7 million ounces already have rolled into April.
CPM’s recommendation is that short-term investors might sell out any long positions they took last week or earlier, seeking to re-position on the long side at prices between $1,800 and $1,810.
The alternative would be to hold the long gold position and buy a put option structure (outright, spread, or other strategy) to protect against a pull back in prices and allow the investor to capitalize on both any such decline in prices while maintaining a long posture.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM is maintain the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target. Recommendations are valid until the target date or a new Trade Recommendation or message is issued by CPM.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.
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