Contributed Commentaries
CPM Trade Signal - Feb. 7, 2022
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Time Stamp
Prices as of 10:30 a.m. EDT 7 February 2022 $1,815.50 (Basis the April 2022 Comex Contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,800 or lower
Initial Timeframe: 8 February 2022 to 14 February 2022
Gold prices have risen from $1,780.60 last week to touch CPM’s short-term target of $1,818 this morning, reaching $1,818.20 before profit taking set in.
Gold prices might see further profit-taking on a very short term basis, which could take gold back to $1,808 or even $1,800.
Short-term investors might take profits around $1,815, or wait to see if $1,820 - $1,822 are hit, and then take profits, looking to go long again between $1,800 and $1,808.
The U.S. CPI release Thursday and Fed report Friday may stimulate investor gold purchases again, with an eye to breaking above $1,820. There is a short-term target at $1,830 and a slightly longer term target around $1,850. If CPI comes below expectations, a sell off to $1,780 should not be ruled out.
One-Month Price Range: $1,788 - $1,850
Gold prices have upward momentum and seasonal strength at present, but they remain vulnerable over the course of February. A spike to test $1,788 - $1,790 cannot be ruled out. Stronger investment demand, inflation and financial concerns, and technical factors meanwhile could push gold toward $1,850. A Russian invasion of Ukraine might exert some upward pressure on gold, but perhaps less than many market observers would predict.
Three-Month Price Range: $1,750 - $1,860
Gold would seem more vulnerable to further weakness in March and April. Investors are expected to become less concerned about economic weakness as expansions continue even in the face of higher nominal interest rates.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM is maintain the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target. Recommendations are valid until the target date or a new Trade Recommendation or message is issued by CPM.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.
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