CPM Trade Signal - March 7, 2022
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Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
Prices as of 12:51 p.m. EDT 7 March 2022 $1,984.70 (Basis the April 2022 Comex Contract).
Initial Target Price / Range: $2,000 initially, higher later
Initial Timeframe: 7 March 2022 to 18 March 2022
Gold prices have risen sharply over the past several days as Russia continues to push through Ukraine, gradually taking territory and costing casualties on both sides. Prices reached $2,007.50 today before easing. Prices across nearly all commodities have risen, including crude oil. This rise in prices does not bode well for investors or the general public worried about upward inflationary pressures and overall economic health.
The surge in sanctions on Russia and reduced participation by non-Russian banks in providing trade finance to pay for Russian commodities are expected to put further pressures on supply chains. It is not clear what the refugee exodus from Ukraine to its Western neighbors will cost these countries, but as this crisis continues to worsen the economic costs will surely rise. But the war is escalating and carries a rising probability of expanding to include NATO and the United States. This and the increased probability that Europe and the United States governments will stop buying Russian oil and gas within the next few days raises the stakes of a bigger, although perhaps abbreviated, war.
Uncertainty about the war, inflation, and more should keep gold prices volatile with a bias toward upward price spikes. Prices are still expected to fall back at some point, but this will occur only later, after there is a clear sign of how this conflict will be resolved.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at firstname.lastname@example.org for details.
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM is maintain the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target. Recommendations are valid until the target date or a new Trade Recommendation or message is issued by CPM.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.