Daily reprieve or more
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
S&P 500 modest risk-on turn talked yesterday, is underway – with adequate support from bonds. That means the dollar is going to get under daily selling pressure, with positive consequences for assets spanning commonidities, precious metals and sure supporting tech as well (looking at TLT to cast a decisive vote for Nasdaq). Unfolding just fine, but what about the CPI effect? Likely to temper the oh so fast inflation theme, at least temporarily – and that would take pressure off the Fed's hand being twisted by the markets. Note though how both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury paused over the last days. Together with the arriving as anticipated negative quarterly GDP print, the temporary slowdown in pace of inflation would get an ally in retreating (especially long-term) Treasury yields reflecting the darkening real economy prospects.
Time for a relief S&P 500 rally with both tech and value participation, if only HYG can perform somewhat better. The bulls have a chance, and can run with it as best as they can. Cryptos thus far are modestly leaning in the "local bottom is in" direction (in spite of the tectonic Tether developments), so the odds are for price gains across the board (at the expense of the dollar) during today – as long as markets interpret the upcoming CPI reading as slowing down / slowly peaking. Yes, since Jun 2020 when I started to talk early effects of inflation, the last week has been the first time when I raised the good likelihood of inflation making a local peak when May / Jun CPI readings come in, only to spring quickly back to life on the "economy is slowing, do something" change in tune of demands made to the Fed.
At these trying times for real asset bulls, let's take the proper precious metals perspective, enjoy the rich caption:
Plenty of upside risk to become evident in 2H 2022, with my Monday's article covering the game plan for turnaround across the many assets on my daily watch. It's the dollar, yields and miners coming back to life that would mark the coming upleg arrival. Lean times until then.
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