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Gold declines almost 1%, flirting with the 200-day moving average

Commentaries & Views

Today's price decline results in the second consecutive month of lower prices. On a technical basis, the fact that gold tested and briefly dipped below its 200-day moving average brings up a realistic probability that the long-term market sentiment for gold is neutral to bearish.

As of 4:30 PM, ET. August gold is trading near its low today of $1837.60, and the 200-day moving average is currently fixed at $1846.90. Gold prices hit a low two weeks ago of $1792.80 before recovering and trading back above the 200-day moving average last week. Today gold opened at $1856.50 and traded to a high of $1867.90 before moving lower and breaking below the widely accepted long-term market sentiment study (200-day moving average) on an intra-day basis.

President Biden meets with Chairman Powell and U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Yellen

Today President Biden met with Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen. This is their first meeting since Chairman Powell was confirmed for a second term by the Senate earlier this month. Before the meeting, President Biden made a brief remark stating that this meeting was to "discuss my top priority, and that is addressing inflation."

The obvious agenda was to discuss the extremely high level of inflation. With inflation still at levels not seen for over 40 years.

"My meeting with the Chairman today and Secretary Yellen is to discuss my top priority, and that is addressing inflation in order to transition from historic recovery to a steady growth that works for American families. And my plan is address inflation starts with simple proposition; Respect the Fed, Respect the Fed's independence, which I have done and will continue to do."

White House National Economic Council Director Brian Deese called it, "very constructive ,,, We have run this first leg of the race at a very rapid clip that has put us in the strong position relative to our peers, but this is a marathon and we have to move and shift to stable resilient growth. We can actually take on inflation without having to sacrifice...all of those (labor market) gains."

It has been actions by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy that has resulted in higher yields in U.S. Treasuries and dollar strength. Those factors have pressured gold lower over the last two months. While higher levels of inflation typically result in bullish market sentiment for gold, higher interest rates and dollar strength have the opposite effect. Therefore, market participants have witnessed the pendulum shifting from bullish market sentiment in gold as inflation rose, and bearish market sentiment as interest rates and the dollar moved higher.

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Wishing you as always good trading,

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