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A tug-of-war takes gold lower, then higher, and finally lower on Friday

Commentaries & Views

Gold traders experienced extreme price volatility beginning with a $70 drop on Monday and Tuesday, higher prices on Wednesday and Thursday, and a final price decline on Friday. This tug-of-war shifted market sentiment causing market participants to concentrate on either spiraling inflation or higher interest rates. The shift between these two opposing forces resulted in dramatic price increases and declines.

Last week’s CPI report which revealed that the current level of inflation is at 8.6% created bullish undertones moving the market higher during the middle of the week. However, the focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's revision of its forward guidance announcing a rate hike of 75 -basis points (3/4%) on Wednesday taking fed funds rates to 1.5% - 1.75%. This was the largest single rate hike since 2009.

Based on a weekly price decline in gold of approximately $40 the clear winner of this tug-of-war is the interest rate hike enacted by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Wednesday’s rate hike was followed by rate hikes from other central banks. On Thursday with the Bank of England raising rates by 25 basis points, the SNB (Swiss National Bank) raised its interest rates by 50 basis points. This follows last week’s announcement by the ECB (European Central Bank) of a 25 basis point rate hike in July and a potential 50 basis point hike in September.

According to Bloomberg News, “June 2022 will certainly be a month to remember in central banking. Global monetary policy makers have laid out the most powerful tightening campaign since the 1980s, with a number of central banks embracing interest-rate increases of a size unimaginable at the start of the year.”

As of 5:10 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active August contract is currently fixed at $1841.90 after factoring in today’s decline of eight dollars or 0.43%. Today’s price decline in gold was also the net result of dollar strength. The U.S. dollar gained just over 1% (1,01%) taking the dollar index to 104.46. The dollar also closed higher on the week.

Today’s price decline took gold just below its 200-day moving average which is currently fixed at $1843. Our technical studies indicate that current short-term support for gold occurs at $1830 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Major support for gold occurs at $1765.50 which is based upon the 78% Fibonacci retracement. The data set used for this retracement begins at the lows and double bottom that occurred at $1680 up to the yearly high of $2078.

These studies also indicate that the first level of resistance occurs at $1860 which is based upon the highs of Thursday and Friday. Major resistance starts at $1878, the 50-day moving average, and $1889.70 which is based on the 100-day moving average.

Gold prices have fluctuated based on the primary focus of market participants. The tug-of-war between focusing on inflation levels or interest rate hikes will continue to be a primary force affecting gold prices through the remainder of this month.

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Wishing you as always good trading,

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