CPM Trade Signal - July 1, 2022
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Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
Prices as of 9.45 a.m. EDT Comex 1 July 2022 $1,789.80 (Basis the August 2022 Comex Contract).
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,810
Initial Timeframe: 1 July 2022 to 8 July 2022
Yesterday, on 30 June, CPM broke one of its basic tenets: We suggested a short-term buy signal on gold at $1,818.80, in essence suggesting investors stand in front of a runaway train.
Prices have fallen sharply today, on a combination of factors.
These factors combined to lead to heavy selling across metals markets Friday morning, from gold to silver, PGMs, and copper.
There has been safe haven buying – of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. Investors have not turned to gold in this instance because of their lower inflation expectations, among other things.
CPM still expects gold prices to soften during July and August. We have been projecting that gold could fall to $1,780 and even $1,750, in the Gold Trade Recommendations we send to paying clients, our Precious Metals Advisory, and other venues, for months.
We continue to see the scope, and likelihood, of such weakness, for July and August. For the next week, however, we view today’s sell off as “Too Far Too Soon” (homage to the Waterboys). In this environment, CPM would not be surprised to see some rebound to around $1,810 or even $1,820 next week, even as we retain the view that prices will be weak for the next two months.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM's analyses provided in CPM's monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm's price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at email@example.com for details.
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM is maintain the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target. Recommendations are valid until the target date or a new Trade Recommendation or message is issued by CPM.
CPM's preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.