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Recession not really a recession? (when rates need to go up)

Commentaries & Views

We have discussed how the official economic narrative this year has been geared toward providing the FED with the "runway" it needs to continue to be aggressive on its rate hike path. Hard money advocates may know that we are already in recession. The consensus going into Thursday is that the GDP print will show a second consecutive quarter of contraction. However, according to the White House, we still may not be in a recession (because – new data analysis), even if the longstanding recession signal is triggered.

Inflation remains a problem: Has the FEDS runway for aggressive hiking become so short that the white house needs to front-run bad GDP numbers by suggesting that a recession is not really a recession anymore? And is this a signal that the FED is about to go a full 1% on Wednesday afternoon?

The gold to silver ratio has broken its Fibonacci level (monthly timeframe shown) to the upside. Metals bulls would like to see this reverse into the end of the month, with the major catalysts ahead.

The DXY is finding support at the midway point of the now familiar range we have been showing (weekly chart shown).

A 1% hike may take the dollar up for a temporary blow-off move, the outlier possibility in this trader's opinion. If the dollar moves up Wednesday, it would likely re-enforce the flashing negative divergence on its RSI. We would also probably see the undercut scenario in the metals bottoming process.

Thanks and have a great week,

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