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Gold: six week rocket ride

Commentaries & Views

  1. Oil and gasoline prices continue to fall.  That's relieving some inflationary pressures, yet gold is surging in a dramatic rally from my $1675 buy zone.

  2. Can the divergent action continue? 

  3. For some insight as to why it likely will. The 2021-2025 civil and global war cycles continue be a major concern. 

  4. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers are dead and maimed, millions of Africans may starve, thousands of Europeans may freeze, Taiwan could become a horrifying war zone, and to ice the rancid war cycle cake, America could descend into full civil war.

  5. To view the effect of this horror on market volatility.  Double-click to enlarge this VXX-NYSE and gold chart.  Stock market volatility usually increases when the stock market is falling…

  6. But suddenly it's increasing while the stock market is rising.

  7. This could continue until Jay Powell stuns lackadaisical investors and drops another round of rate hike and QT bombs on the market at the September 21 Fed meet.

  8. At that point, volatility could stage a "super spike" top.

  9. Investors likely have a nice six-week window of higher prices for stocks, crypto, and most of all… the metals!

  10. Double-click to enlarge this weekly gold chart.  After a blistering $100/oz rally from about $1678, a pause is expected until Friday's jobs report. 

  11. From there, gold is likely to stage another stunning rally, right into my $1850-$1915 profit booking zone.A breakout from the down channel looks imminent and the key 14,5,5 Stochastics oscillator is on a buy signal.

  12. Simply put, the weekly gold chart is currently the most awesome chart in the world.

  13. Given the crazed and debt-oriented actions that US politicians are showcasing when dealing with Russia and China, an "overshoot" surge to $2000-$2080 for gold cannot be ruled out before the next big price reaction occurs.

  14. That reaction is likely to begin in the days ahead of the September 21 rate hike decision.

  15. Have Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi entered themselves in a "Frick and Frack" contest, with the winning prize being the nuclear annihilation of the human race?  Horrifically, this appears to be reality, and the bad news is that it's only month 20 of a 60month war cycle!

  16.  Double-click to enlarge this 10year US yield chart.  Most analysts seem to feel that rates have either peaked or are set to peak.  I beg to differ, in a major way.

  17. While a pullback to the "Fib 38%" or 50%zone is expected after hitting trendline resistance at 34.83… a 20-40year inflation cycle has begun.  Even after the war cycle ends in 2025, it should continue for decades.

  18. US rates likely won't peak until they hit the 20% marker and while the huge cost of energy transition from dirty to clean will play a role, the biggest drivers of skyrocketing rates and out of control inflation will be empire transition from West to East, and the US government's ludicrous addiction to its own size.

  19. Gold, silver, and associated miners are set to go ballistic as this happens.  Even the most bullish gold bugs may be surprised at how high these prices ultimately go.

  20. For a look at the GDXJ chart. Double-click to enlarge.  GDXJ looks set to make a beeline move to resistance at my $40-$42 target zone…

  21. It should get there by around mid-September as the Fed speakers begin to take the podium… with what could be a much more ominous rate hiking tone than today's investors expect.

  22. It's not often that "price in time" forecasts work out in the short term, but the Taiwan action, the rates pullback, and the September Fed meet seem to have the stars aligned for the global gold community today.

  23. What about silver?  Double-click to enlarge this SIL chart.  A post jobs report rally to $31-$34 ahead of the Fed meet looks to be the most likely scenario, and some individual miners should stage gains of 50%-100%.

  24. If it all plays out even roughly as projected, metal stock investors could lock in profits that top hedge funds make in 2-5 years… in just the next six weeks!
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.