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Gold: The real crystal ball?

Commentaries & Views

Is gold telling us that CPI is about to come in under expectations tomorrow? A weaker CPI would clearly be a politically expedient result. Selling of USD may accelerate on a weaker than expected number as the market reprices future rate hike expectations.

The below 4-hour gold chart shows the metal putting in what is an ascending triangle pattern. The rule is the flatter the top, the better the probability of a breakout to the topside. Perhaps gold breaks out of the triangle prior to tomorrow’s 8.30 print. The quick dip buying action seen on Friday showed the bull’s resolve.

The yellow highlighted areas are congestion zones where bulls are currently facing resistance and should expect to face resistance if the probability of an upside break does play out.

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