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CPM Trade Signal - September 23, 2022

Commentaries & Views

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Time Stamp
Prices as of 9:36 a.m. EDT Comex 23 September 2022 $1,656.50 (Basis the December 2022 Comex Contract).

Recommendation: Stand Aside

Initial Target Price / Range: $1,640 - $1,695

Initial Timeframe: 23 September 2022 to 30 September 2022


Gold prices went in the opposite direction of our last buy trade recommendation, issued on 21 September. Instead they hit and fell below our previous 15 September Sell target of $1,655. This was an important support level. CPM would like to see how gold prices respond to this support level being breached briefly today before issuing the next direction on prices. There are reasons to support both a bounce off this level as well as a break below this level.

Gold and silver fell sharply this morning along with most other commodities, currencies, equities, and corporate bonds. The strength in the U.S. dollar, the relative strength in the U.S. economy compared to other major economies, and higher U.S. Treasury bond yields are expected to weigh on gold prices.

In addition to economic and currency market trends weighing on gold, the potential for some alleviation in international political tensions due to developments in the U.S., Russian, and Chinese governments over the next six weeks may also add to short-term downward pressures on gold as a safe haven asset.

CPM continues to think that various political factors ranging from those between Russia and the West over Ukraine, the Chinese National Communist Party Congress in the middle of October, and the U.S. mid-term elections in November are all factors that could potentially drive gold prices lower in the near term, but not necessarily represent longer term negatives for gold.

CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.

While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.


Notes:

Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.

Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.

Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.

CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.


Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.