Gold starting stage 4 decline and what it means for investors
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
Passive buy and hold Investors in general are starting to panic: XLU, dividends, bonds
It has been an interesting year with stocks down nearly 25% and the bond ETF TLT down over 40% since the 2020 highs. The passive buy and hold investor is becoming panicked and we can see this in the stock market through the mass selling of utility stocks dividend stocks and bonds.
When the masses become fearful they liquidate nearly all assets in their portfolios which is why we see the Big Blue chip stocks selling off along with precious metals. As investors liquidate around the world they focus on where their money can be preserved. With most currency falling in value there is a flood towards the U.S. dollar index as the safety play.
Gold Video Analysis
Here you can watch my detailed analysis along with both my short-term expectations and long-term supercycle outlook.
Global Currency Trends – Monthly Charts
As the US dollar index rises we tend to see precious metals fall. As you can see from the charts below almost all currencies are falling in value helping to send the US dollar index sharply higher this is a headwind for precious metals until it finds resistance in tops.
Gold Monthly Chart Comparing 2008 Bear Market and 2022
Let's take a look at the monthly chart of gold. I believe gold entered a new bullish supercycle in 2019, which is very similar to the Super cycle that started in 2001.
I believe the bear market in equities we have started can be compared to the 2008 bear market. Technical analysis shows that gold could correct another 16% lower and match the same 34% correction we saw in 2008.
the price of gold is threatening the 1674 support level. If price is broken on the monthly chart it will signal a large sell off to roughly the $1300 to $1400 level for gold.
While the circumstances and economy are very different from 2008 the price charts are painting a very similar picture. I believe there's still a long way to go for gold to find support and it may take another 8 to 12 months to unfold. I also believe that the precious metal sector will be one of the first assets to bottom and then start a multiyear rally very similar to what happened during the 2009 to 2011 rally.
while the 34% correction starting to take place may look very large it is in line with what we've seen in the past. While price charts don't repeat they do tend to rhyme so I'm expecting a similar type of scenario though I'm sure it will unfold a little differently and take a different length of time to mature.
Price Stage Analysis – Gold Starting Stage 4 Decline
The price of gold is on the verge of breaking down from a stage three topping phase. Once the breakdown is confirmed it will then be in a stage 4 decline which is known as a bear market. It's important to note that we can have bear markets within supercycles.
Just like when gold started at new super cycle in 2001 which lasted to 2013 there can be large corrections and smaller bear markets within the bullish Super cycle.
Dollar Index Rockets Higher and Has More Room to Run
The US dollar Index has been one of the hottest assets to own this year. I believe the rising value of the dollar index has been putting downward pressure on the metals sector all year. As you can see from the quarterly chart below, The US dollar index still has more room to run to match the high set in 2001.
Keep in mind I still think there's another three to five more bars before the dollar forms a top and reverses direction. Each bar on the chart is 3 months because this is the quarterly chart so we still have potentially a year of sideways or lower gold pricing ahead of us.
Gold Miners Will Be Under Pressure If Gold Falls
If gold breaks down and the bear market in equities continues, we will see gold mining stocks continue to sell off. The large cap gold stocks ETF GDX shows a potential of 44% decline in price over the next year. While this may sound bad it will become an extraordinary opportunity in do time.
I believe silver and silver mining stocks will follow that of gold stocks as well.
In short, I'm very excited for what is unfolding in the precious metals sector. And while it may still be early I'm keeping my eye on the sector for the start of a new super cycle rally in 2023 which could be life changing for investors.