Contributed Commentaries
CPM Trade Signal - October 27, 2022
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
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Time Stamp
Prices as of 9:31 a.m. EDT 27 October 2022 $1,665.20 (Basis the December 2022 Comex Contract).
Recommendation: Buy
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,680
Initial Timeframe: 27 October 2022 to 11 November 2022
Gold prices have been in an uptrend since late last week. Prices seem to be holding up well in light of mixed economic data, volatile equity markets, and political winds. Today the first estimate of U.S. third quarter GDP came in at 2.6%, a healthy level and stronger than market expectations. Inflation meanwhile continues to be at high levels. It is expected that the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week by 75 basis points. This is likely already priced into many markets, including precious metals. That said, the near term economic forecast suggests lower growth globally or recessionary conditions and still high inflation rates, in addition to political friction worldwide. Gold prices are expected to head higher, perhaps testing $1,680 or $1,700. There remains potential for a pullback, but could be limited to $1,650.
One-Month Price Range: $1,615 - $1,840
Markets continue to sway between the push and pull of rising interest rates, economic weakness, and high inflation. This will keep gold prices volatile in an aura of uncertainty. Over the next month expectations of continued increases in interest rates may act as a headwind to prices.
Three-Month Price Range: $1,615 - $1,840
Gold remains vulnerable to price weakness driven by rising real rates and a stronger dollar.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.
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