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CPM Trade Signal - October 31, 2022

Commentaries & Views

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Time Stamp

Prices as of 10:43 a.m. EDT 31 October 2022 $1,643.40 (Basis the December 2022 Comex Contract).

Recommendation: Stand Aside

Initial Target Price / Range: $1,620 - $1,650

Initial Timeframe: 31 October 2022 to 4 November 2022


Gold prices have moved in the opposite direction of CPM Group’s last trade recommendation released on 27 October. CPM Group recommends closing out any long positions and standing aside until there is a clearer view of market sentiment after this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Gold prices are likely to consolidate around $1,640 ahead of the FOMC meeting that concludes on 2 November.

A clearer price direction is likely post that meeting. The Fed is expected to increase interest rates by another 75 basis points at its November meeting. Markets will be looking for clues on what the Fed will do at its December and January meetings: Whether the Fed will keep at the current pace of tightening or slowdown its rate of tightening interest rates. The latter is more likely.

What is most important is how markets interprets any comments about a moderation in tightening interest rates. all markets have a tendency to over-react and any talk of moderation could be interpreted as a loosening or pivoting in monetary policy. This could create a short-term bounce higher in gold prices post the FOMC meeting.

CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.

While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.


Notes:

Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.

Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.

Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.

CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.


Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.