Contributed Commentaries
FOMC Update - What pivot?
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
"We still have a lot of ground to cover, and cover it we will". – Jerome Powell (Also said inflation was transitory, though).
The market did not get what it wanted yesterday, following the expected 75bp hike. Rather than coddle markets with soft forward guidance, the Fed chair re-affirmed his hawkish commitment; out of tune with other world central bank guidance.
Stocks reacted, somewhat as expected in that indices finished the day down. The SPY sits at yellow support we showed yesterday (updated 4 hour chart below). However; this bear market rally may just have been stopped short as the severity of yesterday’s intraday reversal is worth paying attention to. The optimistic view is that price will quickly turn back up from support along with the momentum indicator; note how stochastics are oversold this morning again.
Prudent traders however may be content to pull a small profit and sit on the sidelines until perhaps the November 8 election which is another potential catalyst for big volatility.
The reversal in gold should also be noted. Until proven differently, it seems the bears have taken control and are about to make a run at driving gold to a lower low. As we have been suggesting for quite some time; should the 2 year support for gold break, an opportunity to buy perhaps 60+ dollars lower could manifest quickly. The below chart depicts the pattern in the gold price on the daily timeframe. Recall that triangle formations like to break through the flat side of the shape.
The price action following US midterm elections could really change the technical picture laid out above, but caution on the long side remains warranted in this traders opinion.
Have a great day,
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