Contributed Commentaries
CPM Trade Signal - December 1, 2022
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Time Stamp
Prices as of 12:30 p.m. EST 1 December 2022 $1,815.85 (Basis the February 2023 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,795
Initial Timeframe: 1 December 2022 to 16 December 2022
Gold prices rose strongly over the course of November following hints by the Fed at its last Federal Open Market Committee meeting that it plans to slow the pace of its interest rate hikes. Jerome Powell’s speech on 30 November gave the market further confirmation about the Fed’s intent to slow the pace of interest rate hikes going forward. There have been some signs of softening inflation, with the most recent CPI, PPI, and PCE data coming in softer than expected. U.S. November employment data to be released on 2 December, also is projected to show some signs of softening. All of these factors seem already baked into gold prices, however, which increases the potential for gold prices to soften in the near term.
The roll of the nearby active December Comex gold contract, which is now behind the market, had contributed some to the recent rise in gold prices. The U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields also seem close to oversold at this time. All said, the U.S. economy still is in pretty good shape relative to other major economies which should bode well for the U.S. dollar. Unless November employment data is significantly weaker than what the market is expecting, gold prices have a higher probability of declining, than rising, in the near term.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.
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