CPM Trade Signal - December 5, 2022
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Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
Prices as of 10:34 a.m. EST 5 December 2022 $1,786.80 (Basis the February 2023 Comex contract).
Initial Target Price / Range: $1,780
Initial Timeframe: 5 December 2022 to 16 December 2022
Our most recent gold Sell target of $1,795 was reached Friday. Prices bounced back right away, which suggests that there is a fair bit of strength in investor interest going long at these price levels once they show signs of beginning to rise once more. This morning gold showed some strength early, rising to around $1,825, before falling back to $1,785.90 in a short time.
Gold and silver prices are trading in something of a range. There are signs of strength but there continues to be a great deal of caution about being too early in becoming bullish on gold on the part of many investors.
In the face of stronger economic data and expectations and reduced political tensions gold prices seem most likely to decline on a short-term basis over the next several trading days, before the FOMC announcement next Wednesday, 14 December. This said, prices could continue to consolidate in the present range or even try to move up a bit, following an interim price decline.
Markets are trying to price into their short-term view their longer term, one-year expectations. The broader markets are not expecting lower U.S. Fed Funds rates policy anytime soon. Precious metals bulls are, but they are a minority. Fedwatch consensus suggests Fed Funds rate increases into May, reaching 5% to 5.25%, then plateauing, starting to decline now in July by 25 basis points, staying flat until December when another 25 basis point decline shows up. In other words, the broader financial markets do not necessarily see a recession in 2023. They see a maturing expansion.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at firstname.lastname@example.org for details.
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation.
Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
Disclaimer - Past performance is no indication or guarantee of anticipated future profits, and neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor CPM Group can accept any liability or responsibility for any loss suffered as a result of gold price fluctuations. Gold as a commodity is not a specified investment for the purpose of giving advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Therefore this trade recommendation does not give rise to rights to claim compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. CPM Group is a registered CTA with the U.S. NFA and CFTC. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have positions in the precious metals, commodity, and equities markets. CPM Group also manages investment and industrial positions in markets for its clients.