S&P 500, energy, gold, and bitcoin futures overview
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.
S&P 500 (H)
On a higher timeframe basis: On 1/18/22 the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium- term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20. On 8/22/22 we left a medium-term bearish reversal above, that has brought in 676.75 of pressure from the 4178.75 open. These are ON HOLD. On a lower timeframe basis: I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with minimum target of 3793.00—we held this with a 3502.00 low and have bounced 678.00, taking the target out; but the higher timeframe minimum target is 4190.50—we came just shy of this with a 4180.00 high this morning. These are ON HOLD. I warned if the 4180.00 high held, it would likely start a bearish correction to exceed 224.00 from the high—we have seen 391.50. This is ON HOLD. The trade above 3851.94 (-.37 per/hour) warned of renewed strength—we have seen 157.50. The trade above 3874.02(-42 per/hour) has brought in 99.25 of strength. However, this went out weak on the day and poised for pressure. Decent trade below 3860.60 (+.28 per/hour starting at 9:30am) will project this downward. Decent trade below 3839.54 (+19 per/hour) will also warn of decent pressure; but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering.
On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $905.5. The break above $1,347.0 projected this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum. We have attained $744.2. These are OFF HOLD. We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $46.7. We rolled over from $2,079.6 for $456.6. These are ON HOLD. On a lower timeframe basis: The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tic per/hour) has brought in $245.2 of strength. The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tic per/hour) put this above a major formation --we are projected upward $80 minimum. We have attained $206.9 so far. The trade above $1,752.1 (-.3 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $134.3 of the strength warned about. We are in a third stretch of higher timeframe bull structure. I would be aware of areas of possible exhaustion to contend with on the way up at $1,907.1-23.3, which are both a combination of lower and higher timeframe exhaustion. The break above $1,860.0 warned of renewed strength—we have seen $26.4. Decent trade below $1,873.4 (+1 tic per/hour starting at 5:00am) should bring in decent pressure.
On a higher timeframe basis: The roll over on 11/10/21 put this into a bearish trend. I warned the selloff should exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we have seen $54,430 of this. We held exhaustion on a bullish correction of the move down at $59,545 and rolled over $44,620. We have come off $36,080 from the $51,005 close. On a lower timeframe basis: The trade below $34,830 put this below a significant bearish formation that projected this downward $13,000 minimum, $35,000 (+) maximum. We have attained $19,905. We held exhaustion at $25,265-495 with a $25,270 high and rolled over $10,345. We held exhaustion at $22,630 with a $22,875 high and rolled over $7,950. The break below $18,065 (-5 tics per/hour) brought in $3,140 of the pressure warned about. These are ON HOLD. The break back above $16,275-60 has brought in $1,165 of strength. The trade above 17244 (+3 per/hour) warns of continued higher trade. Decent trade back below where it comes in at 17303 (+3 per/hour starting at 6:00am) will negate the bias above. Decent trade back below $16,564 (-1.6 per/hour starting at 6:00am) will warn of decent pressure.
Crude Oil (WTI) (G)
On a macro basis: On 4/29/20 we left a bullish reversal below—we have seen $115.13 from that open at $15.37 in the (N). We took out a major trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We have seen $75.35. The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this upward $56 minimum, $89 (+) maximum. We attained $72.48. These are ON HOLD. On a shorter-term basis: Trade below $119.15 brought in $49.07 of pressure. The trade below $111.00 brought in $40.92 of pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. These are OFF HOLD. We held exhaustion below with a $70.31 low and bounced $11.19 into a lower timeframe bullish correction against the move down from $83.34. This is ON HOLD. We are in a bearish correction/trend against the move up from $70.31, with the last area of possible exhaustion (if it is a correction) coming in at $72.70—we basically held this with a $72.46 low and bounced $4.28--this has the potential to start a multi-week bull structure. The decent trade below $76.79 projects this downward $4.70—we attained $4.33 before short covering off the low. I noted we left a medium-term bearish reversal above Wednesday that also warned of pressure. Decent trade above $76.60 will negate this and warn of renewed strength. Trade above $79.98 will project this upward $8.40 minimum, $25.80 (+) maximum.
Natural Gas (G)
On a higher timeframe basis: The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure. I warned decent trade below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness—we came off 3668 tics. I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downward $2.80 minimum, $5.30 (+) maximum, which could be seen within 3 month’s time—we have traded $1.690 lower. These are ON HOLD. If we break solidly back above 5048-192, this will warn of solid higher trade for weeks, likely toward 7800 (+). On a shorter-term basis: The trade above 3733 (-8 tics per/hour) warned of strength. Decent trade back below where this comes in at 3507 (-8 tics per/hour starting at 8:00am) should bring in decent pressure.
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